Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The day after the biggest sporting event of the year seems like a time to rest from gambling. However, I think it’s the perfect time to bet on some NBA action! We have 11 games to choose from and the term “Super Bowl” hangover might actually apply to these players depending how they spent last night.
There are two games that actually strike me as really interesting matchups from the entire slate: Nets vs Knicks and Timberwolves vs Mavericks. The new look Nets are very interesting to me considering the overall talent and logjam of perimeter players. The Mavericks are now must watch TV anytime Luka and Kyrie share the floor. Let’s look at my favorite player props for the night.
Buddy Hield (IND) over 21.5 PR -125
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Since Haliburton has returned from injury, Hield is second on the team in rebound chances per game (9.8). He’s playing closer to the basket with the 3-guard lineups we’re seeing from Rick Carlisle with Haliburton-Nembhard-Hield. The Pacers SG is averaging 22.6 PR over the L10 and this is right at his season average. The Jazz are in the middle of a 4-game road trip and are allowing the 6th most PPG and 7th most RPG to opposing SFs. Indiana is looking to snap a 4-game losing streak and there’s no better team to do it against than the Jazz, who are 2-5 straight up as road favorites. Give me Hield to step up big and the Pacers in an upset. 1U
Dejounte Murray (ATL) over 21.5P -115
Line available on DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’ll go back to Murray after he let us down against San Antonio two nights ago. This is 1 point above his season average, but it’s a great matchup on the road for the Hawks SG. Charlotte is top 8 in PACE and 24th in defensive rating on the year. The Hornets lack any real defensive options on the perimeter and letting Mason Plumlee go at the trade deadline erased the only rim protection they had. Murray dropped 27 on Charlotte earlier in the year and now gets them on the road, where he really thrives. 7 of his top 10 scoring performances this season have been on the road, and he shoots significantly better from 3 (+7%). 1U
Mikal Bridges (BKL) under 18.5P -104
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
I’m not sure what to make of Bridges first game as a Brooklyn Net. He put up 23 points and tied a team high 34 minutes, while leading the team in shot attempts. HC Jacque Vaughn has the tough task of sorting out rotations for this Nets team riddled with new pieces. While Bridges did step up, I’m more likely to believe he regresses tonight against a Knicks team giving up the second fewest PITP over the L15. The Knicks have added Josh Hart to bolster their perimeter defense and hopefully light a fire under RJ Barrett on the defensive end. This number is just too high for me given my uncertainty around the Nets team; my suspicion is that they have a new high scorer every night and take the team first approach offensively, riding the hot hand. 1U
Luka Doncic (DAL) over 8.5R -104
Line available on Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
In his first game with Kyrie Irving, Luka posted one of his lowest USG rates of the year (31.9). He was playing off the ball more as the two All-Stars learn how to make this new experiment work. Although the game vs SAC went to OT, Luka still posted 15 potential rebounds and finished with 9. Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson are both Questionable tonight and leave uncertainty in the T-Wolves frontcourt. Kyrie makes his debut tonight in Dallas and I expect both players to be fully engaged for this game as they are only 1.5 games ahead of Minnesota and split the series. Luka has hit this in 15/27 home games this season (55%). 1U
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