Best NBA Player Props for Wednesday's Slate (4/7): Rolling with Randle

New York Knicks forward Julius Randle
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PropBetGuy

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

We’re back, with another NBA Wednesday flush with player props. With the college season ending on Monday, the basketball world is fully focused on the pros. And tonight, we’re treated to a tasty nine game slate.  If you’re looking towards any bets on sides or totals, be sure to check out all of our analysts’ picks before you place your wagers.

With the baseball season also now in full swing (pun intended), it’s safe to say that Prop Bet Guy is swimming in player props, between the two sports.  Tonight, on the hardwood, there were many lines that immediately caught my eye.  However, for my best bets tonight, I’ve keyed in on two big men, both playing for teams in the Big Apple.

Julius Randle over 21.5 points (-125)

Line available at publishing. Playable up to over 22.5 points.

I’m going back to the well with Randle to go over his point total.  The Knicks forward has undoubtedly been one of the more popular players amongst the player prop community this season, pleasantly surprising bettors and fans alike with his robust production.  I’ll spare you the same details I wrote about last Saturday — Randle wound up scoring 29 points in only three quarters that night versus Detroit.  Now, he’s coming off a sub-par scoring performance versus the Nets on Monday, only netting 19 points on 37 percent shooting. So, we’re targeting him again on the bounceback.

He gets the Celtics tonight, who currently allow the ninth-most points to opposing power forwards. More importantly, this is the position group they struggle with the most. And, while usually sound defensively, the Celtics have struggled of late. Since March 1, Boston rates as the ninth-worst defensive team in the NBA. Over that span, their opponent’s leading scorer outproduced his average in 12 of 17 games. Of course, this bodes well for Randle, as the Knicks’ leader on the offensive end.

The Celtics are coming off a disappointing loss last night at the hands of the 76ers. Boston’s defense has faltered on zero days rest, allowing 114 points per game (versus 109 in all other games). I love the potential for Randle to secure another big game — I have the All-Star projected north of 25 points.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Knicks vs. Boston Celtics.

LaMarcus Aldridge under 20.5 points + rebounds + assists (-110)

Line available at publishing.

Another play on a New York-based big man, this time focusing on the under. Aldridge is still carving out his role on his new team — in three games thus far, he’s stayed under this total twice. However, that was mainly with one of the Nets superstars playing alongside him (save for a brief stint from James Harden, before his injury). With Kevin Durant expected back tonight, and Kyrie Irving still running the show, it’s fair to expect how much usage Aldridge will garner.

The Pelicans are a tougher matchup for big men. The Nets’ small-ball center will be facing a team that allows the 11th-fewest combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) to opposing centers. It’s also fair to question how Aldridge’s minutes will shake out in the Nets rotation tonight. The Texas product will be competing with Durant, Blake Griffin, Jeff Green, and possibly Nicholas Claxton and Alize Johnson for minutes at the power forward/center position.

With all of this uncertainty, I have Aldridge’s production taking a bit of a hit tonight. My projections have the Nets center at 17 PRA.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for New Orleans Pelicans vs. Brooklyn Nets.

Pickswise is the home of free NBA picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our NBA parlays and ‘NBA prop bets‘ tabs for more expert picks. 

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