Best NFL Playoffs Prop Bet for Buccaneers vs. Saints: Godwin Catches On

Chris Godwin
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL · 1 year ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs concludes with an NFC South clash. The division-winning New Orleans Saints host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa will be looking to avenge the losses in both of the regular-season games between the teams.

With both squads led by Hall of Fame-bound quarterbacks looking to cement their legacy, this game is chock-full of enticing props.  However, a matchup involving one of the Bucs stud wide receivers really caught my eye.

Chris Godwin over 63.5 receiving yards

Line available at publishing. Playable up to over 68.5 receiving yards.

The fourth-year receiver had quite the interesting game last week in Tampa’s win versus Washington.  On one hand, he registered five catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. However, the normally sure-handed receiver committed five drops. To put that in perspective, Godwin had dropped six passes in his entire 58-game career before last week. Given Godwin’s pedigree, I see that game as an aberration, as opposed to the beginning of a trend.

In the regular season, the Bucs receiver accumulated 840 yards in 12 games and hit the over on this number seven times. In Tampa’s high-powered offense, Godwin averaged ten yards per target. This not only led the team, but was 11th in the NFL amongst receivers. He’s developed a nice rapport with Tom Brady, accumulating a 22 percent catch share and 24 percent yard share.

The Matchup

The Saints present a favorable matchup for Brady to focus in on Godwin.  Cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins will be locked in versus Tampa’s primary receivers on the outside, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown. Godwin, who runs two-thirds of his routes from the slot, will be lined up versus Saints cornerback, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson. Gardner-Johnson allowed the eighth-most catches from the slot this season, and the Saints as a team allowed the eleventh highest percentage of slot receptions.

Additionally, the Saints do allow opposing quarterbacks an average of nine yards of depth per target – the fourth furthest in the NFL. Already possessing a dominant run defense, I expect the already pass-happy Bucs to let Brady air the ball out.

The Projection

Brady’s pass attempts line is set at over/under 39.5. For the sake of conservatism, we’ll take it down to his per-game average of 38.  This would put Godwin at 7.6 targets.  Just using the receiver’s raw numbers, this would project him to 76 yards.  However, taking into account the matchup, I have Godwin’s yardage projected in the low 80s.

Free NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Picks and Predictions

Be sure to check out our full-game previews for every matchup in the divisional round:

Pickswise is the home of free NFL picks. Check out the latest NFL props and NFL parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on Any MLB Game, Get $200 if Your Team Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $200 in free bets + any cash winnings from your original wager

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.