Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 17: Can Murray save the Cardinals?

Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray playing against the Seattle Seahawks
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL· 1 year ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

The roller coaster that has been the NFL regular season comes to an end on Sunday.  Week 17 brings us a whole lot of uncertainty, with many teams either resting their players for the playoffs, or looking forward to the long offseason. When considering Week 17 player props, it’s best to key in on players in more certain situations.  Thankfully, we do have a handful of matchups between teams looking to either solidify their playoff standing, or force their way into the postseason.

But in general, between injuries, some COVID uncertainty, and general questions of how motivated some teams will be, Sunday is sure to bring some craziness.  Make sure you stay up to date with the latest ongoings by checking out our picks and full game analysis.

With the NFL tweaking their playoff format, next week we’ll be treated to six wildcard playoff games.  Be sure to check back here as I’ll be bringing you my best player prop, with analysis, for each game.

But since NFL teams will be looking to stay focused on the regular season this week, I’m looking to follow suit. With that, here are my two best player props for Week 17.

Kyler Murray over 21.5 completions

Line available at publishing. Playable up to over 22.5

The Arizona Cardinals are one of the many teams who have a de facto elimination game this week.  Murray has a tough matchup versus the vaunted Rams defense, but I see value in his completions line.  From a raw numbers perspective, the Cardinals quarterback has hit this in 12 of his 15 games this season.  He’s led a very quick-strike offense this year, with 76 percent of his completions traveling less than ten yards in the air.  His yards per completion is 10.2, which puts the Cardinals in the bottom ten of the league.

The Rams present a difficult matchup for Murray and the Cardinals. From a passing yardage perspective, the Rams have allowed the least in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 7.3 yards of depth on their throws versus the Rams, second least in the NFL. The Rams have allowed the least 2o+ yard completions this season as well. What this amounts to is short completions, which is right in Murray’s wheelhouse. Despite the strong numbers, the Rams have allowed 10 of 15 opponents to accumulate at least 22 completions.

Murray will be playing after hurting his leg late in last week’s game. He already struggled running the ball versus the Rams, never exceeding 28 yards in his three career games. The Rams in general have the second-best run defense in the NFL, allowing a staunch 3.8 yards per carry. For the Cardinals to succeed and clinch a playoff berth, I expect them to rely on their star quarterback to move the ball down the field.

David Montgomery over 3.5 receptions

Line available at publishing. Playable up to -125

The Bears have put themselves back in contention for a playoff spot after winning their last three games.  Montgomery has been a revelation as of late, accumulating over 520 rushing yards in his last five games.  However, I’m keying on his passing game usage in this one.

The Bears running back became their default workhorse after Tarik Cohen went down with an injury in Week 3.  Since then, Montgomery has had at least four receptions in only five of eleven games.  However, versus the Packers in Week 12, he had five catches on six targets.

The fact of the matter is, the Packers are a fantastic matchup for Montgomery to catch passes. Green Bay will be looking to win to lock up home-field advantage and a first-round bye. Aaron Rodgers and company will look to push tempo and put the pressure on the Bears to keep up. The Bears passing game has not been needed much versus weaker opponents in the last three weeks, but the gamescript will likely force their hand in this one.

In Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky’s last three matchups with the Packers, his running backs have had five, nine, and 16 receptions, for a total catch share of 37 percent.  While that might be a little inflated, I do expect Trubisky to have to throw a good amount in this matchup.  I have Montgomery projected at six targets, which puts him in prime position to catch at least four passes.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL picks. Check out the latest NFL props and NFL parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $5, Win $150 on either NYY or CWS to win the Sunday Night Baseball matchup (30-1 Odds)!

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Place a $5 bet on the Yankees or White Sox to win the Sunday Night Baseball matchup

If your teams, get 30-1 odds and win $150!

Must be 21 years or over to participate. Reward paid in site credit. Offer valid for new players only. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on Any MLB Game, Get $200 if Your Team Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $200 in free bets + any cash winnings from your original wager

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Win $200 If ANY NBA Team Makes a 3-Pointer!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline bet on any upcoming NBA game.

Win $200 if either team in your selected game makes a 3-pointer

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 on any NBA team, Get $150 in Free Bets if they win!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any team to win an NBA playoff game

Win $150 in free bets if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Win $200 If A Goal Is Scored In ANY NHL Game!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline bet on any upcoming NHL game.

Win $200 if either team in your selected game scores a goal

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,100

Get up to $1,100 in First Bet Insurance!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.