We have just 4 weeks left in the NFL regular season, and if you’ve made it this far into your survivor pool, your options are limited as you’ve already played nearly half the league. There are still a few matchups every player alive will be able to pick from, though, so we want to make sure that you don’t take a crucial misstep so close to the finish line.
Who to pick in a Week 15 NFL survivor pool
In past years we have given a few different recommendations for games to pick and ones to avoid each week. But survivor pools come in different sizes and the strategy for outlasting your coworkers in an 8-person office pool is vastly different from that of a national pool that hundreds of thousands of Americans can enter before the season starts.
In a smaller pool, particularly early in the season, it’s important to last week-to-week and see if any of your competitors drop before making any risky moves. In a larger pool it’s much more important to try to separate yourself from the pack to gain an edge, as it does you no good to pick the same team as everyone else whether that team wins or loses. So you’ll definitely need to take some more chances early on in order to make a move and better position yourself for the end.
GENERAL PICK: Miami Dolphins (-435) over New York Jets (+330).
This is the no-brainer of the week. It’s unlikely that you’ve already played the red-hot Dolphins (if you’re still alive, you’d have had to do so for one of their wins, and there were much better options in recent weeks). Miami started off 1-7, but we all knew then that they were a better team than that. They’ve since won 5 in a row, and have the chance on Sunday not just to get back to .500, but depending on other results, to even get back into the AFC playoff picture.
The Jets, on the other hand, put together yet another pathetic performance in their 30-9 loss to the Saints at home last weekend. It’s always a good idea to bet against them when you can in your survivor pool, and given that their last 3 games are against the Jaguars (who you shouldn’t pick) and the Buccaneers and Bills (who you’ve likely already played), this could be your final chance. Take Miami to make it to Week 16.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins.
RISKY PICK: Las Vegas Raiders (-180) over Cleveland Browns (+155).
A week ago, this game wouldn’t have been on your radar at all, and if it was, it would have been to pick the Browns. But that’s how quickly things change in the NFL, especially this season as teams continue to struggle with COVID outbreaks. The most recent team to get hit hard is the Browns, who are currently without both Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum under center. While it’s still possible that any players on the reserve list could be activated in time, it remains unlikely, and the league is still convinced that this game will go ahead. Assuming it does, the Raiders should win it.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Las Vegas Raiders vs Cleveland Browns.
GAME TO AVOID: Jacksonville Jaguars (-200) vs Houston Texans (+170).
Here’s another one that you would have looked at just a week or two ago and wondered why this would be the game to avoid. You would have thought, “some expert needs to tell me not to pick Jacksonville in my survivor pool?” But then again, if you’re still playing, you’ve already used up 14 teams and are likely looking at matchups with moderate-to-heavy favorites between teams you haven’t played yet. This one fits the bill, and after the firing of Urban Meyer on Wednesday night, you might think that Jacksonville’s clubhouse can finally breathe for the first time all season.
But don’t bite. Yes, Meyer is gone, and there will likely be much less tension as the Jaguars go through the final motions of yet another losing season. But they’re the team they are for plenty of reasons, not just the dysfunction they experienced from their new (now former) head coach. Make them prove they’re a legitimate team before you waste a week on them, especially at such an important time in the game.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars.
How Does an NFL Survivor Pool Work?
For those of you who have never played survivor or are unfamiliar with how it works, the concept is simple: last as long as you can without incorrectly picking the outcome of a game. You just need to select one game per week, and if you pick the winner correctly you move on to the next week. The ultimate goal is to be the last player standing in your pool.
There’s just one catch: you can only pick each team once per season. This is where strategy comes in; it would be easy enough to pick the Chiefs every week, but you’re only allowed to go with them once and need to find 17 other winners throughout the season to finish a perfect 18-0.
Pickswise is the home of free NFL picks and NFL Odds. Check out the latest prop bets and parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks.
