Best NFL Week 15 Prop Bet for Thursday Night Football: The Agholor redemption tour rolls on

Nelson Agholor catching a pass versus the Colts
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PropBetGuy

NFL · 1 year ago

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More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Hard to believe it, but we’ve hit Week 15. In a season riddled with unpredictability, and Week 15’s Thursday Night game continues on that trend. Two of the more mercurial teams, the Los Angeles Chargers and the Las Vegas Raiders, face off in an AFC West showdown. The once-promising Raiders (7-6), losers of three of their last four, desperately need a win to stay afloat in a crowded AFC playoff race. While the 4-9 Chargers will look to finish the season strong with their promising rookie quarterback, Justin Herbert.

The host Raiders enter the game as three-point favorites. And with the highest game total on the Week 15 slate at over/under 53, these two teams will look to bring the offensive firepower. A game like this is sure to garner plenty of betting action, so be sure to prepare yourself by checking out our picks and full game preview here.

On the player prop front, I love this matchup, especially when looking at overs. For both teams’ offensive skill positions, we have plus matchups almost across the board. Though, there is one line in particular that I’m honing in on, for the Raiders receiver many people wrote off after a tough 2019.

Nelson Agholor over 47.5 receiving yards

Line available as of publishing. Playable up to 53.5 receiving yards.

Philadelphia isn’t the easiest city to play in when having a subpar season, but Agholor has found a home in Las Vegas. Since taking over as a starter in Week 3, Agholor has rooted himself as quarterback Derek Carr’s favorite downfield target, and one of the better ones in the NFL. He ranks fourth in both yards per reception (16.7) and depth of catch (13 yards downfield). Agholor is also 15th in yards per target (9.9). His target share since becoming a starter is 17 percent, but has evolved over the season. Since Week 6, Agholor’s target share is 20 percent, and in the last four games, it’s 22 percent. Also notable is that rookie receiver and fellow downfield threat, Henry Ruggs, won’t be active for this game.

The Chargers present a favorable matchup for Agholor, on a few levels. For one, the Chargers allow opposing receivers 13.7 yards per catch and an overall target depth of 9.8 yards, both fourth highest in the league. Agholor’s likely matchup, Chargers cornerback Casey Hayward, has allowed a whopping 17 yards per completion when in coverage — the third-most in the NFL amongst cornerbacks covering against at least 20 targets. In their Week 9 matchup, Agholor burned Hayward for a 45-yard touchdown, en route to a 55-yard day (on only three targets).

Where the Chargers have proven proficient is in coverage versus Raiders tight end Darren Waller. In his last three matchups versus the Chargers, Waller has averaged only 33 yards per game. In total, the Chargers have held opposing tight ends to the sixth least targets per game (6), and the fifth least yards (40.1). With the Chargers determined to take Waller away over the middle of the field, I expect Agholor to have a lot of winnable one-on-one matchups on the outside.

Conclusion

Essentially we’re looking for Agholor to receive at least six targets from Carr, a number he’s hit in each of the last four games. With Carr averaging 34 attempts per game, and the Chargers allowing an average of 33, we can conservatively estimate 30 pass attempts. Agholor would only need a 20% target share to hit this, which is below his average over the last month. In this plus matchup, I have Agholor’s yards projected in the low 60s.

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