Best NFL Week 15 Prop Bets for Saturday: Is Fant Undervalued?

Noah Fant
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL · 1 year ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

Week 15 trudges on, treating us to two Saturday matchups.  The first game sees the AFC East leading Buffalo Bills heading to Devnver to face the Broncos.  For the nightcap, the current number one seed in the NFC, Green Bay Packers, look to solidify their standing, at home versus the Carolina Panthers.  Both games forecast to be cold, but clear – perfect conditions for December football.

Adding a day of games onto the weekly NFL calendar is a bettor’s dream.  Be sure to ready yourself by checking out our picks and full game previews here.  As for player props, these games provided some interesting individual matchups.  I found some value in two pass catchers, both primed to have big days.

Noah Fant over 33.5 receiving yards

Line available as of publishing. Playable up to 38.5 receiving yards.

Yes, I’m targeting the Bills defense again with a tight end’s yardage prop.  It didn’t work out last week with Eric Ebron, but I see too much value on this Noah Fant line.  Fant left last week’s game early in the first quarter with a mysterious illness (assumed by beat writers to be food posioning), but has practiced in full this week and should be good to go.  The sophomore tight end has developed a nice rapport with his draft class counterpart, quarterback Drew Lock.  In Lock’s games this year (excluding last week), Fant has exceeded this number in six of seven.  Fant’s target share is 16%, and his yard share is a robust 20%.  Only once did Fant fail to see less than five targets.

Despite limiting Ebron (and the entire Steelers offense) last week, the Bills remain a plus matchup for opposing tight ends.  The Broncos receivers have tough matchups with the Bills robust secondary, and both of Denver’s running backs, Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay, are questionable to play.  The Bills still allow opposing tight ends 64 yards per game, second most in the NFL.  It’s also worth noting that Fant leads the NFL amongst tight ends with 6.8 yards after the catch per reception.  With the Bills missing the fourth most tackles in the league with 111, I see the Broncos taking advantage by throwing a few more short passes Fant’s way.

With Lock implied by bookmakers at 35 pass attempts and around 240 yards, this puts Fant at 5.6 targets and 48 yards.  Given the matchup, I project Fant at six targets, and his yards in the low 50s.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling over 36.5 receiving yards

Line available as of publishing. Playable up to 40.5 receiving yards

Another receiving prop, and for this one, I’m keying in a Packers receiver, just not the one you’d expect.  MVS has had a turbulent year, but he’s carved out his role as the deep threat in an offense lead by MVP candidate, Aaron Rodgers.  He’s hit this number in seven of twelve, including four of the last five.  However, his misses have been bad, with three games of five, zero and zero yards.  More importantly, the opportunity is there.  Even with the return of fellow receiver Allen Lazard, Valdes-Scantling has played in at least 70% of offensive snaps each game.

Valdes-Scantling’s average depth of target (aDOT) is 17.6, and his average depth of catch is 13.2 yards, both pace the Packers receiving core by at least four yards each.  Nine of MVS’ 31 receptions this season have gone for 20+ yards, and five of those have gone for over 40 yards.  In the last five games alone, he’s averging 22.8 yards per reception, and 14.25 yards per target – both would currently lead the NFL.

When looking at such a high variance player, the matchup becomes even more vital.  The Panthers have allowed the sixth most receptions of 20+ yards, with 44.  In the last seven games, they’ev allowed sixteen different receivers to hit this number.  With Adams commanding safety help over the top, Valedes-Scantlins should have plenty of room to run one-on-one versus the Panthers subpar secondary.

This is the case of a player potentially only needing one long catch to hit this prop.  Though, with Valdes-Scantling seeing six targets in three of his last four games, the volume has been there for him as well.  I have him projected in the mid 50s, with one long catch carrying the weight.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL picks. Check out the latest NFL props and NFL parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk-Free Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5+ On Any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any NFL pre-game ML

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$500

Get Your First Bet Risk-Free Up To $500

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets With PointsBet's Second Chance

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.