Best Week 16 Prop Bets for Saturday: Hopkins to keep on rolling

DeAndre Hopkins of the Arizona Cardinals
Photo of PropBetGuy

PropBetGuy

NFL· 1 year ago

Show Bio

More commonly known as @PropBetGuy on Twitter, Doug Carter has been crunching the numbers on player props for years. He's also a staunch defender of future Hall of Famer, Eli Manning.

With the college football regular season slate finished, the NFL provides us some Saturday entertainment with three intriguing games.  Not only are several teams’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance, but many fantasy football championships will be decided this week.  Ensure you’re prepared by checking out our Week 16 fantasy football column.

On the player prop front, I’m looking to notch another winning week as the regular season navigates its final stages.  I’ve unearthed some value in two lines attributed the passing game where I’ll be looking to capitalize on favorable positions.

Deandre Hopkins over 6.5 receptions

Line available at publishing. Playable to -130.

This might shock you, but Deandre Hopkins is really good at football.  He’s second in the NFL with 103 receptions, and third in targets with 138.  He’s notched at least seven receptions in nine of his fourteen games, including each of the last three.  So to see this line open at plus odds (+102 as of publishing) was a little surprising.

The books might be adjusting for the matchup, but the 49ers don’t scare me off this line.  Yes, they are allowing the ninth-fewest receptions to opposing wide receivers.  However, when I evaluate elite wideouts, I like to size up the defense’s matchup versus similar high-level players. Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams (first and fourth in receptions, respectively) both had ten catches versus the 49ers.  Hopkins himself had 14 catches versus the 49ers earlier this season.

Also, Hopkins has proved to be matchup-proof.  In recent weeks versus the likes of top cornerbacks James Bradberry and Jalen Ramsey, Hopkins had eight-plus catches in each game.

With a 28% target share, just Hopkins’ averages would have him in line for ten targets. Hopkins has converted just nine targets into at least catches in all nine occurrences this year.  With the Cardinals looking to solidify that playoff spot, I like them to get the ball to their best playmaker early and often.

Be sure to also check out our full game preview for 49ers at Cardinals, where our expert has a three-star play against the spread.

Leonard Fournette under 19.5 receiving yards

Line available at publishing. Playable down to under 18.5 receiving yards.

Bucs quarterback Tom Brady was frequent to checkdown to his pass-catching running backs during his time in New England.  But, since coming to Tampa Bay, it’s been a different story. This season, Brady’s running backs are only seeing 12% of total receiving yards.  Tampa’s lead back, Ronald Jones, is out for this game, leaving Fournette and LeSean McCoy to carry the load.

Fournette has only exceeded 20 yards receiving in two of eleven games. He was outpaced by McCoy in the receiving game last week, 16 yards versus 32, despite running twice the amount of routes.

The Lions defense versus the pass has been gouged by receivers, allowing the third-most yards per game, and the third-highest yard share, at 71%.  With receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown in the fold, I expect Brady to feast versus the Lions’ soft secondary.

In a game where Tampa comes in as a ten-point favorite, we also could be facing a positive gamescript come the fourth quarter.  Between this and my inclination we might see a bit more of McCoy in the passing game, I like Fournette’s production through the air to be curbed.

You can check out our full game preview of this matchup, which features picks on both the side and total.

Pickswise is the home of free NFL picks. Check out the latest NFL props and NFL parlays as well as expert underdog predictions and computer picks

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$150

Bet $5, Win $150 CASH on Any NFL Team to Win Their Playoff Matchup!

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook

Bet $5 on any NFL team to win their next playoff game

If your team wins, YOU WIN $150 - in CASH!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

DraftKings

$280

Bet $5, Win $280 on Any NFL team to Win Their Next Playoff Game!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account

Bet $5+ any NFL playoff game Money Line

Win $280 in credits if your team wins the game

Must be 21+ located in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WY or WV to play. Offer valid only for new customers. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$200

Bet $20, Get $200 - Regardless of Outcome!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit $20+.

Bet $20 on any game in any sport!

Win $200 - no matter whether your initial bet won or lost!

BetMGM

$200

Win $200 If ANY NBA Team Makes a 3-Pointer!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline bet on any upcoming NBA game.

Win $200 if either team in your selected game makes a 3-pointer

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Win $200 If A Goal Is Scored In ANY NHL Game!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline bet on any upcoming NHL game.

Win $200 if either team in your selected game scores a goal

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,001

Get a $1,001 Free Bet + A FREE NBA JERSEY!

Register for a new Caesars Sportsbook account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,001

Receive a free bet matching your initial stake up to $1,001 + a FREE NBA JERSEY!

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$400

Get a $400 Risk-Free Bet on the Breeders' Cup!

Register for a new Twinspires account using offer code PICKS400

Place a bet on the Breeders' Cup

Receive a refund if your first bet loses up to $400

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.