Caleb Wilfinger
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After an entertaining Week 0 slate, the 2022 college football season finally kicks off in full this week. Last weekend’s games served as a nice appetizer, but the true chase for the College Football Playoff begins in Week 1.
But before we can start thinking about the National Championship, there’s an entire regular season for us to enjoy. The campaign kicks off on Thursday and rolls through the entirety of Labor Day weekend. While this week’s lines have been moving all summer, there are still some good value bets of which to take advantage.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Week 1 of the college football season.
We’ve got CFB picks for all the big games in Week 1!
Money line parlay: Utah over Florida & TCU over Colorado (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I’ve had a wager placed on Utah knocking off Florida in this matchup for weeks now. Unfortunately, the market has moved toward Utah -3 (-110), or the Utes -2.5 with heavy juice. And while I am comfortable backing Utah at either price, it’s not the best number from a value perspective. Instead of worrying about winning by a margin, I like parlaying the Utes money line with TCU. This gets you to about +105 odds at most sportsbooks, and I’d bet this down to -110.
For starters, there’s a reason TCU rose from a 10-point favorite to a 14-point favorite. Colorado has one of the worst offenses in the Power 5 and didn’t do itself any favors by bringing in new offensive coordinator Mike Sanford Jr. The Buffaloes were decimated in the transfer portal and field essentially an entire new team from a season ago. That won’t bode well against a hungry TCU team with new defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie at the helm. The Horned Frogs should have no trouble picking up a win in their season opener.
But on the positive side for the Pac-12, Utah should make a statement on Saturday night in the swamp. Under new head coach Billy Napier, Florida has a ton of questions to answer on both sides of the ball. Anthony Richardson is turnover-prone, the Gators defense was poor against the run and their offensive line is integrating new pieces. Compare that to the Utes, who were dominant in the trenches in 2021 and bring back their coach, quarterback and OC. Playing in a tough road environment, Utah’s continuity will be its strength. Both Utah and TCU hold considerable edges on Saturday, so I’m comfortable taking advantage of that with this parlay.
Be sure to check out our full Utah Utes vs Florida Gators predictions
Appalachian State ML (+100) over North Carolina
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Another wager that I placed earlier this month was on Appalachian State to beat North Carolina. And while the market has caught up after the Tar Heels’ middling effort in Week 0, the Mountaineers still have value up to -115. This line move was simply a case of the wrong team being favored, especially since this game is in Boone. The Mountaineers are the better team and it should start in the trenches. App State’s defensive front was excellent a season ago and should create havoc against an almost entirely new North Carolina offensive line. And while the Tar Heels can create explosive plays, they were one of the worst teams in pass protection in 2021.
On offense, quarterback Chase Brice finally limited his turnovers a season ago, and he shouldn’t be asked to do too much in this one. The Mountaineers boast one of the best offensive lines in the Group of 5, and they should see success against a porous North Carolina run defense. The Tar Heels have been a poor road team against the spread in Mack Brown’s tenure and I don’t see that changing in this one. Even with last week’s tune-up game for Drake Maye, this will be a raucous road environment for the new quarterback. The Sun Belt favorites are the play here.
Be sure to check out our full North Carolina Tar Heels vs Appalachian State Mountaineers predictions
Boise State vs Oregon State under 57.5 (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
For the last of my Week 1 best bets, I’ll be backing the under in Boise State vs Oregon State. The wrong team could be favored here, so look out for my Week 1 underdog best bets piece for my thoughts on the side. However, my favorite bet in this game concerns the total. Boise State returns quarterback Hank Bachmeier, but he has lost his top receiver in Khalil Shakir to the NFL. Therefore, the Broncos will likely lean on their rushing attack, led by George Holani. And while I anticipate the Broncos having success on the ground, Oregon State’s defense returns 9 starters and should be equipped enough to slow down Boise State through the air.
The Beavers offense was excellent a season ago, finishing in the top 10 in EPA per play and success rate. However, Oregon State lost its top running back, All-Pac 12 center and starting right guard in the offseason. With the defensive-minded Andy Avalos at the helm for Boise State, the Broncos’ top-3o defense from 2021 should shine in their road opener. Both teams should rely on the ground game, making any total over 54 seem high. Expect this game to finish closer to 50 points than 60.
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