The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Nashville Superspeedway on Sunday for the Cracker Barrel 400 in Lebanon, Tennessee. The green flag drops at approximately 7:00 PM ET on Amazon Prime and HBO Max with 300 laps (1.33-mile oval) at 399 miles. Let’s set the scene before we get into our Cracker Barrel 400 best bets for Sunday, May 31.
This will be the 6th NASCAR Cup Series race at the superspeedway just outside of the Music City. Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney is the defending champ, turning in an average speed of 129.068 mph last season. It was the 2nd-fastest average speed in the 5 previous installments thanks to just 7 cautions. The record is 132.914 mph, when Trackhouse Racing’s Ross Chastain won on June 25, 2023 in a race that featured just 4 yellow flags.
We’ve never had a repeat winner, but we have had dominance. Hendrick Motorsports driver Kyle Larson has a victory in Nashville, taking checkers in the inaugural race on June 20, 2021. He leads all drivers with a 5.2 Average-Finish Position (AFP) on this track — leading 264 laps — with all of his finishes coming inside the Top 10. In fact, he has never finished lower than 8th in Nashville, posting an Average Driver Rating of 106.6.
If you’re looking for a sleeper, and we’ll dig more into this later, Front Row Motorsports driver Zane Smith is worth a look. He has made just 2 previous NASCAR Cup Series starts at this track, but he has finished 2nd and 13th, quickly matriculating up from an Average Start Position of 31.5 to 7.5 — good for 2nd-best among active drivers with 2 or more starts.
Team Penske’s Joey Logano needs to get going this season, and Nashville could the elixir to cure his ills. He has an 8.6 AFP in 5 career Cup starts in the Music City, posting a win, 2 top-5 runs and 4 top-10 finishes with 23 laps led. His AFP is 3rd-best among the field.
The aforementioned Chastain has fared well here, too, going for the win, 3 top-5 finishes and 1 DNF in June 2024. He was 11th last season, while posting a 10th-place spot in the first stage last season.
Chase Briscoe of Joe Gibbs Racing has had a devil of a time trying to figure out Nashville, posting a dismal 26.8 AFP, and he has never finished higher than 17th in 5 Cup starts at the superspeedway. Alex Bowman isn’t much better (23.4 AFP), while Michael McDowell (22.6 AFP), Brad Keselowski (22.2 AFP) and Chris Buescher (20.6 AFP) are other drivers to avoid this weekend.
Now that the table is set, let’s get into my best bets for the 2026 Coca-Cola 600, with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Be sure to check out our NASCAR betting analysis every week throughout the season!
NASCAR best bet: Zane Smith Top 10 Finish (+400)
The Front Row Motorsports driver was a runner-up in his very first Nashville NASCAR Cup Series start in June 2024, running for Spire Motorsports, moving all the way up from 36th to 2nd behind the wheel of the No. 71 Chevrolet.
Last season, he started 27th and scooted up to 13th in his first start for the Front Row crew. He finished 8th in the 2nd stage while posting a 78.5 Driver Rating, though he has yet to lead a lap in his career at Nashville.
If you’re a little less adventurous, Smith Top 20(-185) is another option, particularly as a parlay piece.
NASCAR best bet: Ross Chastain Top 10 Finish (-110)
Chastain has picked up a win on this track before, and he is a driver to watch out for again this season. He has finished 11th or better in 4 of his past 5 Nashville Superspeedway starts on the NASCAR Cup Series, while leading for 148 laps with a 105.5 Average Driver Rating. His AFP would be even better than 10.4 if not for the fact that he was collected in an accident in the June 2024 race.
Chastain is coming off a disappointing 35th-place showing at Charlotte, a race he had previously won. His last decent showing was a 7th-place run at Talladega, another superspeedway. Look for a bounce back from the Florida watermelon farmer this weekend.
NASCAR best bet: Winning Manufacturer – Chevrolet (+170)
Chevrolet is a strong play to head to Victory Lane on Sunday in Nashville. Chevy has a pair of checkered flags in the first 5 NASCAR Cup Series races at this superspeedway, with Ford claiming the previous 2. While 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick has burned up every kind of track this season, that might be the reason the sportsbooks have Toyota listed as the favorite. However, Toyota has never won at Nashville. With Larson’s dominance, especially, we’ll stick with Chevy.
NASCAR best bet: Top Ford Car – Ryan Blaney (+120)
Blaney is the chalk in this particularly category, but he is a strong play to be the top Ford finisher on Sunday.
The Team Penske driver is the defending champion, and he has finished 6th or better in 3 of his past 4 NASCAR Cup Series starts at the track — posting a 140.8 Driver Rating last season. He started 10th or lower in 4 of his 5 starts but always managed to come up through the field in rather short order. I’m expecting more of the same Sunday.
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