Diane Knox Balas
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Last week at TPC Potomac, we saw terrible weather, high scores and a second Wells Fargo Championship victory for Max Homa. But buckle up baby, because we’re riding straight into the Lone Star State for a week that will look very different.
A strong field descends on McKinney, just north of Dallas, for the AT&T Byron Nelson, the last PGA Tour event before the second major of the year. Seven of the world’s top 15 will tee it up this week, fine-tuning their games and getting reps in before the PGA Championship.
Scottie Scheffler is back as the strong favorite this week, playing for the first time in a stroke-play event as Masters champion. He lives nearby, has played the course a lot and we all know about the type of golf he’s playing this year – incredible! You’ll find him at around 7/1 this week. Other notable names in the field include Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and newlywed Dustin Johnson.
TPC Craig Ranch: What you need to know
The course this week for the iconic Byron Nelson tournament is TPC Craig Ranch. This is the second time it has hosted the tournament, with the first being just last year. K.H. Lee stormed to victory with a score of -25, beating closest rival Sam Burns by 3 strokes. It’s worth noting that Lee was 200/1 entering the week; that’s music to my longshot-loving ears! TPC Craig Ranch also hosted the 2008 Nationwide Tour Championship (winning score -17), and the 2012 Web.com Tour Championship (winning score -16) so we know we’re in for another birdie-fest, or shall we say Texas Shootout!
Last year, this 7,468 yard course played as the 3rd-easiest course on record since 2015, reflected in the fact that the cut was -6. Runner-up Sam Burns equalled the course record of 62, also held by Ryan Palmer.
Pretty wide fairways with very little rough make it extremely forgiving off the tee, similar to what we saw a few weeks ago at the Mexico Open, and the greens rank as the 8th easiest to hit on the PGA Tour. We have four Par-5s here, and the majority of the field should get to the green in two. I told you, birdie-fest! The only course defense could be the wind, but it’s not forecast to get above 15mph all week.
We’re going to see a stark contrast in the weather from last week – the sweaters and rain gear won’t be making an appearance! Expect temperatures in the 90s, with a slight dip to 88°F on Sunday.
Knowing the guys are going to have to go low to be in contention, I’m really looking at current form, solid tee-to-green and great putting stats. Last year, Lee gained over 8 strokes in his approach play and 4.5 strokes on the greens, so I’m using that as a bit of a blueprint when it comes to my picks.
Knox’s Knockout AT&T Byron Nelson picks
Will Zalatoris (+2200)
Odds available with BetMGM at time of publishing
It comes straight from the horse’s mouth that Will, who lives in Dallas, has played TPC Craig Ranch “hundreds of times”. I always like Texas guys to do well at Texas events, and we’ve seen it time and time again. The big win for Will has been brewing for over a year now, and it would be extra sweet for him to get it done on home soil. He ranks 2nd on the Tour in approach, 28th in birdie average and, for someone who’s putter is the club that’s been letting him down, there’s been a steady improvement of late. He’s in fantastic form, with five top-6 finishes this year, including a T6 at the Masters. I know he’s one of the favorites, and I’m big on Zalatoris getting over the line this week.
Cameron Champ (+6500)
Odds available with DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The longest hitter on Tour has found some awesome form over his last few starts. He almost won at the Mexico Open a few weeks ago, but a dreaded triple-bogey derailed him as he was about to make the turn. He still finished in a tie for 6th, and when you combine that with his 10th place finish at the Masters, we see a brilliant trend developing in his game. This is a long course with wide fairways, like Vidanta Vallarta, and Champ may be seeking some redemption.
Lanto Griffin (+8000)
Odds available with DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
There’s a Texan theme running through some of my picks, and while this guy lives in Jacksonville Beach, he won big at the Houston Open back in 2019. Griffin has been playing some great golf with four top-10 finishes this season, including a T6 at last week’s Well Fargo Championship. He’s just outside the top 30 in approach, with solid putting and birdie-making stats.
Luke List (+13000)
Odds available with DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I am shocked and astounded to see Luke List at such high odds, so I’m jumping on this right away! He’s already won once this season (Farmers Insurance Open) and is coming off a great start at the Wells Fargo Championship (the weather was so bad over the weekend that he can be forgiven for shooting 74-74). But List’s stats are excellent – 8th off the tee, 4th tee to green and 13th in approach. We saw a longshot win last year so there’s a lot of appeal further down the board, and I love these odds for List.
AT&T Byron Nelson Prop Bets
Ryan Palmer Top-5 Finish (+1400)
Odds available with DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I mentioned him earlier, but this Texan holds the course record of 62 at TPC Craig Ranch. It’s been a mixed season for Palmer, including three top-20 finishes, but he lives close-by and loves playing in his home state. He goes against my model of “great putters”, however his stats everywhere else are solid and we’re just banking on a hot week on the greens. With his course knowledge, I couldn’t overlook Palmer at 14/1 for a top-5 finish.
Sung Kang Top-10 Finish (+4000)
Odds available with DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I had tipped Sung Kang for a top-5 finish last week, and he burned me by missing the cut, but (for some reason) that hasn’t deterred me from going with him again. Kang won this tournament back in 2019 (albeit at another course) but we saw those winning memories come good for Homa last week. Plus, few know TPC Craig Ranch better than Kang, as this is his home club!
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