Diane Knox Balas' The Match 6 best bets, predictions and analysis

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Diane Knox Balas

Golf · 1 month ago

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Golf analyst for Pickswise.

The Match began life as a duel between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, and now we’re onto the 6th iteration of the charity golf competition. However, this time, and for the first time, we have NO PGA Tour pros competing — just NFL superstars. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will be teeing it up against Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen on Wednesday evening at the Wynn Golf Club, Las Vegas.

You could say it’s the veteran QBs taking on the young guns in this 12-hole matchplay format. Each team member hits a tee shot, then the team select the better of the two and play alternate shots until they complete the hole.

The Match 6: What you need to know

So who to back? Well, Rodgers has the best record in The Match series after he won the event alongside Bryson DeChambeau last year in Montana. In fact, he defeated his now-teammate Brady, who was paired with Mickelson. And speaking of Phil, this will be the first time he hasn’t been part of The Match… but we’re hardly surprised since he hasn’t been seen in months.

Also, when you look at the handicaps of the four guys, the Green Bay Packers QB is the favorite, with a registered handicap of 4.6.

His teammate, Brady, went somewhat viral on social media last week after footage emerged of him making an ACE whilst being filmed. But we never see the ball go in the hole — the camera was on Brady the whole time — so the validity of this all-star shot is more than a little questionable. 

On the other hand, Super Bowl 54 MVP Mahomes and Buffalo Bills QB Allen have youth on their side. And experience, just not in The Match. Both are regular participants in the American Century Championship, which is a celebrity, televised golf event held in Tahoe each year. And neither of them are all that bad.

Team Mahomes-Allen are definitely the underdogs heading into the contest at +160 (on DK Sportsbook) with their opponents at -190. But Patrick and Josh are well aware of this and I feel they could be sneaky-good, quietly working on their games and strategizing a way to take down “the old dudes”. 

Knox’s The Match 6 picks and best bets

If you’re looking for some ways to make money off Team Brady-Rodgers I’d dive into some prop bets – you can find odds of +200 on them winning the first hole and, if you think The Match will begin nice and slowly with a tie, it’s +100. The NFL veterans are +170 to win the second hole.

On hole 4, if you think either Tom or Aaron can hit the ball within 10-feet, you can get odds of +450 (+250 if you think any of the four can). We saw some great precision from Rodgers in his The Match victory with Bryson.

I’m betting on the sheer power of the 26-year-olds, so if you’re confident Mahomes and Allen will hit the longest tee shot on holes 1, 2 or 7, you can get it at +105. I’ll probably let them warm up a little and get over any first tee nerves before I put that one on, mind you.

If you’re feeling especially brave, the line is +50000 to see a hole-in-one on any of the par-3s (we’re looking at you, Brady!) 

These events are always fun to watch (so fun that my football-and-golf-loving husband has bailed on his softball playoff game!) and they raise a ton of cash for Feeding America. Through The Match series, Capital One have already raised almost $33 million for the charity, providing over 17 million meals. The celeb announcers are always brilliant too, and this year Charles Barkley is back with his unique analysis… and trash talk.

The action begins at 6:30 pm ET on Wednesday and will be broadcasted on TNT.

Pickswise is the home of free expert Golf Picks and Golf Predictions. Our PGA expert picks go live every Monday or Tuesday, so check out our latest golf picks, best bets, and analysis for this week’s PGA tournament now.

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