French Open men’s singles preview, predictions and best bets: Skewed draw opens door for Tsitsipas

Stefanos Tsitsipas
Photo of Ricky Dimon

Ricky Dimon

Tennis · 1 month ago

Show Bio

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

Because both Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz are ranked outside the top 4 on the ATP Tour right now, they were always going to be at the mercy of the French Open draw. Sure enough, both Spaniards ended up in the same half of the bracket as world No. 1 Novak Djokovic. That means only 1 of the top 3 tournament favorites can reach the final. And either Djokovic or Nadal will be ousted no later than the quarterfinals, as that is where those two all-time greats would go head-to-head. The winner could face Alcaraz in the semis. Given the lopsidedness of the draw, the door could be open for contenders on the weaker side. Let’s break down what it all means.

Here are the odds to win the men’s singles French Open title and my best bets. Picks for the women’s tournament will come on Friday.

French Open odds

Here are the odds for the French Open men’s singles tournament, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Novak Djokovic +190
Carlos Alcaraz +200
Rafael Nadal +370
Stefanos Tsitsipas +500
Alexander Zverev +1800
Casper Ruud +2300
Jannik Sinner +4800
Felix Auger-Aliassime +4800
Daniil Medvedev +4800
Andrey Rublev +5500
Dominic Thiem +5500

3-star value play: Stefanos Tsitsipas (+500)

Tsitsipas made it all the way to the championship match at Roland Garros last spring and even came within a single set of lifting the trophy (Djokovic came back from two sets down to beat him). Don’t be surprised if he goes one step farther this time around for his first Grand Slam title. He is without question the best clay-court player on tour outside of Djokovic, Nadal and Alcaraz. Well, all 3 of those guys are in the top half of the draw. Tsitipas has a great chance to reach the final and at that point he could meet one of the top 3 favorites coming off potentially brutal quarter and semi matches. Given the draw he has, there is value at +500.

2-star value play: Jannik Sinner (+4800)

Tsitsipas has a very good draw opposite Djokovic, Nadal and Alcaraz. But I’m not willing to say he has the best draw since he has to meet Musetti in round one. The best one probably belongs to Sinner and Andrey Rublev. They are in the softest section of the bracket with No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev, who is uncomfortable on clay and has missed all but one tournament during the dirt season because of a hernia. Whoever wins the projected fourth-round showdown between Rublev and Sinner could go a long, long way – especially if it’s Sinner. The 20-year-old Italian reached the quarterfinals as an 18-year-old (lost to Nadal) and advanced to the fourth round last season (again lost to Nadal). He has never lost at Roland Garros to anyone not named Rafael Nadal. Sinner is sporting an incredible 24-6 match record for this 2022 campaign, so all signs point to huge success for him this coming fortnight.

1-star value play: Rafael Nadal (+370)

I am not overly high on Nadal’s chances this year, but I also can’t let a +370 opportunity slip entirely by the wayside. This is the first time since the Spaniard’s debut appearance in Paris 17 years ago (which he won) that you can get him at these kinds of odds. It’s true that Nadal’s preparation has not been ideal. He lost in both Madrid and Rome, plus his chronic foot injury popped up again. As mentioned many times already, he also has a bad draw. Still, this is a 13-time French Open champion we are talking about. Nadal is…wait for it…105-3 lifetime at the French Open. I can’t pass up +370 without making at least a small play.

The Pickswise tennis handicappers are on hand throughout the entire tennis season, bringing you the best free expert Tennis predictions and picks from top events including the U.S. Open, French Open, Wimbledon and the Australian Open.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$200

Bet $5, Win $200 In Free Bets!

Sign up for a new account with FanDuel Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any sport, any market

Win $200 in free bets regardless if your bet wins or loses

Must be 21 years or over to participate. Reward paid in site credit. Offer valid for new players only. Full terms available at FanDuel Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on Any MLB Game, Get $200 if Your Team Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $200 in free bets + any cash winnings from your original wager

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,500

Get up to $1,500 Risk-Free First Bet!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

PointsBet

$100

Bet $100 Risk-Free on every NBA Finals Game

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Each NBA Finals game, your first Fixed Odds bet on the game will be Risk-Free up to $100

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.