Ricky Dimon
The tennis season’s second major takes place this coming fortnight with the French Open that starts on Sunday.
Will it be the beginning of new era at Roland Garros on the men’s side? There is no Rafael Nadal in the draw, Roger Federer has retired, Andy Murray is absent and Novak Djokovic isn’t even seeded in the top 2. Carlos Alcaraz is #1 in the world and Daniil Medvedev has climbed back to #2 thanks to his recent title at the Rome Masters. Holger Rune, who finished runner-up to Medvedev in Rome, is also in the mix along with Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at the odds and my picks for the upcoming festivities at Roland Garros.
You can also read my predictions for the French Open women’s singles.
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Men’s French Open odds
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz +160
Novak Djokovic +250
Holger Rune +900
Daniil Medvedev +1000
Jannik Sinner +1300
Casper Ruud +1800
Stefanos Tsitsipas +2000
Alexander Zverev +3000
Andrey Rublev +4500
Lorenzo Musetti +8000
Dominic Thiem +8000
Taylor Fritz +10000
Felix Auger-Aliassime +10000
3-star value play: Daniil Medvedev (+1000)
Daniil Medvedev was a productive winner for me on hard courts in February and March. I wasn’t prepared to stay on the bandwagon during the clay-court swing since this is his least favorite surface, but the 27-year-old Russian has given me no choice. He is playing incredible tennis this season and – as his Rome triumph indicates – it hardly matters what is underneath his feet. If he can win on the red clay of the Italian capital, he can also win at Roland Garros. Now that Medvedev has an ideal draw away from Djokovic and Alcaraz, that possibility becomes even more real.
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2-star value play: Taylor Fritz (+10000)
Taylor Fritz could not have asked for a better draw at Roland Garros. He is on the opposite side from Alcaraz, Djokovic and Tsitsipas, plus he is in a different quarter than Medvedev. Although clay isn’t his best surface, the 9th-ranked American recently advanced to the semifinals of the Monte Carlo Masters and (as of Thursday) he currently finds himself in the Geneva semis. I have already cashed one +10000 play this season (Petra Kvitova in Miami) and will go back to the well for another.
1-star value play: Andrey Rublev (+4500)
There are 2 outlets and 2 outlets only for Rublev to win the tournament. That is, however, enough for me to back him with a small play at +4500 odds. Rublev finds himself in the tougher top half of the draw, so he needs Djokovic to be less than 100% physically (very possible) and needs Tsitsipas to take out Alcaraz in the quarterfinals (unlikely but at least somewhat possible). If those things happen, the door will be open for the world #7 to reach the final and ultimately lift the trophy. Rublev captured the biggest title of his career on the clay courts of Monte Carlo last month, so his confidence is high.
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