Ricky Dimon
Golf may not be as popular as basketball, baseball, American football and soccer, but it should not be forgotten by the betting public. There is plenty of value to be found on the links, and this time of year – the end of spring and beginning of summer – is bettors’ favorite. All four majors are played in the span of four months, beginning with the Masters in April and going through the British Open in July. Next up on the 2022 schedule is the PGA Championship, which takes place this week at Southern Hills Golf Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Let’s discuss some of the common golf markets before getting into more PGA Championship specifics.
Golf betting markets
Futures
Futures probably draw the most interest when it comes to golf. It’s easy to see why. This sport is unique in that there aren’t really one-on-one, head-to-head matchups (the WGC-Match Play Championship is one exception). Although there is a market for arbitrary matchups between certain players on certain days to see who can go lower, they aren’t actually playing against each other like two players would in a tennis tournament. Thus golf betting is driven mostly by futures. Odds for most tournaments will be posted by sportsbooks a few days before they begin (generally Thursday is the starting day, with very few exceptions outside of the aforementioned Match Play Championship). For the majors, those odds are generally posted many months in advance.
The most popular futures bets, as you might expect, are on outright tournament winners. Pre-tournament, favorites to win are generally in the +800 to +1100 range. Yes, it’s that hard to win a golf tournament even for the best players in the world. Maybe if someone is totally dominating the tour at the time of an event and the rest of the field at that particular event isn’t overly strong, you could find a favorite at +700 or so. But that is rare—and it has to be said most likely wouldn’t offer a lot of value.
Of course, you don’t have to go big by betting someone to win an entire tournament. There are also markets for finishing in the top 10, the top 20, and making the cut. Someone who is +1200 to win a title, for example, could be +150 to finish in the top 10 and -170 to place in the top 20. Cuts happen after two of the four rounds at traditional tournaments are complete. Generally speaking, two-thirds of the field advances to compete on the two ensuing weekend rounds. Title favorites could be as low as -1500 to make the cut.
Be sure to check out Diane Knox Balas’ full PGA Championship preview and course insights
Over/Under
The total for an individual golfer’s score is another betting option. Such a market is most often offered for opening Thursday rounds—especially at the four majors. It’s a simple concept, similar to game totals in other sports. Will a player shoot over or under his quota? If the over/under for a golfer’s round is 69.5 and he shoots 70 or worse, an over bet cashes; 69 or better gets the win for under tickets.
Head-to-head
As mentioned above, some books will pit two golfers against each other in a figurative but not necessarily literal head-to-head matchup and you can bet on which one will post a better score on a particular day. The official name is two-ball betting. Three-ball betting is the same concept, one you will often find for the first two rounds of majors when competitors are playing in groups of three.
The PGA Championship
Scottie Scheffler was – and still is? – the hottest player on tour to begin the season. Unsurprisingly, he capped off his run with a dominant performance at the Masters. But the No. 1 player in the world is not the PGA Championship favorite. That distinction belongs to second-ranked Jon Rahm, who is going off at +1100 (odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook). The Spaniard is also +275 to finish to in the top 5, +150 to finish in the top 10 and -140 for a top 20 spot.
Scheffler and Justin Thomas are next at +1200 followed by Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay all at +1600. Jordan Spieth is alone at +1800 and then you can find a larger group at +2500 (Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith and Dustin Johnson). Tiger Woods is not among the favorites as he prepares to tee it up for the second time this season, but his expected participation at Southern Hills in itself is a big win for golf. Tiger is +6500 to win, +1200 to place in the top 5 and +600 for a top-10 showing.
For the PGA Championship and other majors, there are other markets such as the leader from a certain country. For example, Louis Oosthuizen is a +250 favorite to be the top South African and Cameron Smith is a +175 No. 1 choice to be the best among Australians on the leaderboard.
Diane Knox Balas also has her best prop bets for the PGA Championship
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