Golf picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions & best bets from Diane Knox Balas

Photo of Diane Knox Balas

Diane Knox Balas

Golf

Show Bio

Diane Knox Balas loves golf (she’s Scottish, so of course she does) but let’s just say she’s much better at analyzing golf than playing! The same cannot be said for her brother, Russell Knox, who’s a 2-time winner on the PGA Tour and fueled Diane’s initial passion for the sport. A seasoned TV and radio host, Diane has given out 8 outright winners since joining the Pickswise team in April 2022. Her general rule is she has to have three stand-out reasons for each pick and spends her time studying stats, playing form and little nuggets of information from golfers’ lives on Tour. Diane lives in Jacksonville, Florida with her husband Garrett, son Greyson and two English Bulldogs Bowser & Barkley. You can follow her antics on Twitter @KnoxyDiane and Instagram @dianeknoxbalas.

Last week’s Honda Classic saw Chris Kirk secure his 5th career PGA Tour victory in a playoff against rookie Eric Cole – and it didn’t come without the predicted “Bear Trap” drama! I’d picked Shane Lowry as one of my outrights, and he finished in a tie for 5th. Maybe we’re getting closer to a win! This week, the big guns are back in action. This is such a great time of the year for golf, with four out of five straight events being in the new “elevated” category, which means more money, more points and more superstar power on the course.

Next week, we have The Players Championship, but this week it’s off to Arnie’s Place. Bay Hill hosts the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and with another $20 million purse you know the field is stacked. In fact, 44 of the OWGR top 50 are in action, the most in any event since last year’s Open Championship at St Andrews.

As we’ve seen with the two previous elevated events (WM Phoenix Open and Genesis Invitational), the cream rises to the top with Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm claiming the respective victories. Scheffler won the API last year in really difficult conditions and is back to defend. However, Bay Hill is a bit of a different beast and can throw up some surprises, especially when it comes to Sunday comebacks. Rory McIlroy (2018 winner) and Francesco Molinari (2019 winner) both shot 64 on Sunday to come from way back to win.

Plus, last year’s winning score was only -5, and in 2020 Tyrell Hatton shot over par on both Saturday and Sunday to win at -4. The wind can really pick up and wreak havoc. Last year saw some of the toughest conditions the tournament had ever seen, with the Sunday scoring average reaching 75.48. Some guys have elected to skip this event in the past so they don’t feel totally beat up by the time they arrive at The Players the following week.

FYI, if you fancy Rahm this week, he’s +700 (FanDuel). Bear in mind that this is only his second time playing in this tournament and he’s never won on the East Coast, but he’s Jon Rahm, and it feels like he can win anywhere right now!

DraftKings is one of the most popular and trusted sportsbooks in the United States, and you can understand why with a new-customer offer where you can bet $5 and if your team wins, you’ll get $150 in bonus bets. Click here to sign up to DraftKings right now.

 

Bay Hill: What you need to know

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club and Lodge is a par 72 and measures 7,466 yards. Like last week at the Honda, the field will face A LOT of water. It’s a long course with tight doglegs, combined with some of the longest rough seen on Tour and a lot of bunkering.

Driving accuracy percentage always appears higher at Bay Hill, but that’s due to the fact the players are forced to lay up on a lot of holes to safely avoid the water. Look out for the par-5 6th hole this week, or the infamous “Bryson DeChambeau” hole, as Bryson cut across the water with monster drives and went on to win the tournament. John Daly also once shot an 18 on this hole, so it’s one to pay attention to.

Guys will be faced with a lot of 200+ yard iron shots into these greens, so elite iron play will be key, combined with an excellent short game and the ability to perform on the firm and fast Bermuda greens. All three par-3s measure over 200 yards. In short, pars are often celebrated at Bay Hill, and we can expect to see higher scoring than we’ve seen so far this year.

Knox’s Knockout Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Will Zalatoris (+2500)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook

When looking at players who can perform at difficult courses, Will’s name has to be in the conversation. He finished runner-up in two of the four Majors last year, and T6 at The Masters, along with top-5 finishes at Muirfield Village and Torrey Pines. Zalatoris was sidelined due to injury for the latter part of 2022, but his T4 finish at the Genesis (on another tough course) shows he’s back and ready to contend. He’s also gained strokes on the greens in all four of his starts in 2023, which is an encouraging trend for a guy who’s struggled with that part of his game. He finished T10 here in 2021, so some course familiarity will come into play.

Jason Day (+3300)

Available at BetMGM Sportsbook

Talk about a guy who’s come out guns-blazing in 2023! Jason Day has finished within the top 10 in three of his four starts this year, highlighted by a 5th at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s also got great tournament history here, winning in 2016 and finishing within the top-25 an additional four times. His recent stats show gains on-the-greens and off-the-tee in his last four starts, and his putting stats have shown the biggest improvement. I wanted to save Day for The Players next week, but I’m throwing him out there for the API as I love those odds.

Billy Horschel (+10000)

Available at DraftKings Sportsbook

I’m sticking with Horschel this week after picking him for the Honda. Yes, he finished T42 in the end but took the early lead and divulged that he’d been struggling with illness and his swing as the tournament went on. He also talked about swing changes he’d tried to implement – and had failed – so he has gone back to the basics of what made him great in the first place. After a disappointing end to his Honda run, the Floridian will hopefully see this week as a clean start in his home state, where he’s desperate to win. He came close here last year, finishing runner-up, so he enters the week with that added feel-good factor.

Tom Hoge (+12500)

Available at Bet365 Sportsbook

I loved these odds for Hoge this week. Due to many forced lay-ups, longer iron play will be vital this week, and Tom sits 2nd in GIR 200+ yards for the season. His best finish here was T15 in 2020, and he’s coming off a T14 at the Genesis Invitational that saw him gain strokes in putting and approach. Let’s hope his putter stays hot.

All of today’s biggest games are available to bet with BetMGM, the premier destination for online sports betting. New customers can earn themselves a $1,000 deposit bonus by signing up right now! Click here to lock in this great sign-up offer.

 

Arnold Palmer Invitational Prop Bets

Keith Mitchell top-10 (+500)

Available at Bet365 Sportsbook

“Cashmere Keith”, as he’s been called on the telecast over the past few weeks, is back in action after an impressive run at the Genesis and Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where he finished top 5 in each. Mitchell likes Arnie’s Place and has two top-6s under his (no doubt expensive) belt. He’s gained strokes in approach and off-the-tee in his last four starts and is ranked 3rd for the season in approach shots from 175-200 yards. I like him to be up there again this week.

Ryan Fox top-20 (+400)

Available at Bet365 Sportsbook

Fox is over from the DP World Tour to compete at the API after an impressive start to 2023. He’s had three top-20 finishes (in the United Arab Emirates and Singapore) and the wind of Orlando this week shouldn’t phase the Kiwi. I mean, he’s won in Scotland in October before! It’s his first time playing here, but I love his game and these odds to keep the top 20 form going.

Need a new sportsbook? Check out SuperBook, which is the top-rated sportsbook in Vegas and has a great new customer offer where you can claim up to $250 as a sign-up bonus! Click here to join SuperBook.

 

The Pickswise golf handicappers are on hand with expert Golf Picks and Golf Predictions as well as tournament previews and analysis throughout the PGA Tour, including all of the majors.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
BetMGM
EXCLUSIVE OFFER: Bet on CBB Tournament and get $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if you Don't Win + $25 Bonus Bet

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit

Place your first bet and get refunded up to $1,000 in bonus bets if you don't win

Plus receive a $25 Bonus Bet after placing your qualifying wager

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER CO, OH, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, Nevada, New York or Ontario
FanDuel Sportsbook
Get a $1,000 No Sweat Bet on any CBB Tournament Game!

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account

Make a first-time deposit of $10+, and then place your first real-money wager on FanDuel Sportsbook

New customers get their first bet paid back in bonus bets up to $1,000 if you lose!

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.
DraftKings
Bet $5+ any College Basketball Pre-Game ML And Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your Team Wins

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Make your first deposit and bet $5+ on any pre-game ML

Get $150 in bonus bets if your team wins

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $150 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com..
Unibet
Virginia Bettors- Get a $100 Free Bet for the CBB Tournament

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.
bet365
Bet $1 on the CBB Tournament and Get $365 in Bonus Bets at bet365!

Register for a new bet365 account

Place qualifying bets of $1 or more

Get $365 in bonus bets - no matter if your bet wins or loses

New Customer Offer. Deposit required. Bonus Bets added to Bonus Bet Credits balance. Bonus Bet risk excluded from returns. T&Cs, time limits, and exclusions apply. Must be physically located in VA.
WynnBet
Bet $100 on the CBB Tournament & Get $100 Bet Credit

Register for a WynnBET account today.

Deposit & Wager $100 on any sports market (odds -120 or greater).

Get a $100 Bet Credit.

Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
BetRivers
Get a $500 Free Bet for the CBB Tournament

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF
Caesars Sportsbook
Your First Cash Bet on the CBB Tournament Is On Caesars Up To $1,250

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account and Place your 1st wager of $10 or more

If you lose, you get 100% of your stake back as a Bet Credit - up to $1,250.

AND win or lose, you’ll also get 1,000 Reward Credits® and 1,000 Tier Credits.

21+. Terms and conditions apply.
DraftKings
Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus when you bet on the CBB Tournament

Create a new DraftKings Sportsbook account and make your first deposit (min $5)

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.
BetMGM
Get $1,000 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if you Don't Win your CBB Tournament Bet

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded up to $1,000 in bonus bets if you don't win

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER CO, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, Nevada, New York or Ontario
TVG
Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.
TwinSpires
Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.
Underdog Fantasy
First deposit is 100% matched up to $100 with Underdog Fantasy

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $100) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply
Owners Box
First Time Deposit Bonus Up To $500

Sign up for a new DFS account with OwnersBox

User's first deposit will be matched up to $500 in site-credit

Join one of their Daily NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL contests

You must be at least eighteen (18) years of age to receive deposit bonuses, participate in Contests, or win prizes offered through OwnersBox Contests. In jurisdictions, territories, and locations where the minimum age for permissible use of Contests is greater than eighteen (18) years old, you must meet the age requirement in your local jurisdiction or territory.