Golf predictions – Tour Championship odds and best bets

Rory McIlroy hits a tee shot at Bay Hill.
Photo of Ricky Dimon

Ricky Dimon

Golf · 2 years ago

Show Bio

Since graduating from Davidson (The College That Stephen Curry Built), I have been writing about sports--just about any and all you can think of!--and coaching tennis in Atlanta, Ga. Beyond the four major sports, I am an avid tennis fan and cover the ATP Tour on a daily basis. If I'm not busy writing, you can generally find me on a tennis court or traveling the world wherever a sporting event takes me.

The 2020 PGA Tour season is coming to an end—well…sort of.

In normal years, the Tour Championship in Atlanta, Ga. really does end the golf season for all intents and purposes. Sure there are some tournaments in the fall, but they generally attract weak fields and their stats officially count toward the following year. Of course, 2020 is by no means a normal year. This time around we still have the U.S. Open and the Masters on the upcoming schedule, having been postponed from June and April, respectively.

As usual, however, the Tour Championship does bring the FedEx Cup to a conclusion. Someone will be walking away from East Lake Golf Club on Sunday evening with the cup—and with $15 million in his pocket.

Dating back to last year, the format is unique in that heading into the finale the entire FedEx Cup standings are now strokes-based instead of points-based. The amount of points a player accrued throughout the season correlates to the number of strokes under par (or in some cases at par) at which he starts the Tour Championship. Leader Dustin Johnson opens at -10 and is the obvious favorite to win it all. Jon Rahm comes in next at -8 and is understandably the second favorite. They are followed by Justin Thomas (-7), Webb Simpson (-6), and PGA Championship winner Collin Morikawa (-5) on the list off oddsmakers’ choices.

Let’s take a look at the best pre-tournament bets heading into Thursday’s opening round, and be sure to check out our golf expert picks page for outright and daily picks.

Horschel to finish in the top 10 (+400)

There seems to be a bit of overreaction by the market to the opening scorers. From the No. 1 guy (Johnson) to the last (Billy Horschel, Viktor Hovland, and others at even par), there are only 10 strokes of separation. Okay, those even-par players probably aren’t going to come back and win the tournament. But they are by no means without a chance to make some noise and do some damage. Heck, Horschel and company are just five shots behind Morikawa—who is starting the tournament in fifth place. As with every event, there are four days of golf that can rearrange to leaderboard in a big way. Horschel, a proven force at the Tour Championship, is more than capable of taking advantage. He won the tournament and the FedEx Cup in 2014, and he finished runner-up to Tiger Woods in 2018 (that was before the format change, too). The former Florida Gator recently placed second at the Wyndham Championship, so he is playing well enough to once again thrive at perhaps his favorite venue.

Berger to beat Matsuyama (-120)

Daniel Berger and Hideki Matsuyama are both starting at -4, so there is no needed to get the calculators out when you are trying to decipher the winner of this matchup. Berger has made three previous trips to East Lake and has finished in the top half of the prestigious field (top 15) on all three occasions. The 27-year-old American has been one of the best players since the PGA Tour returned from its coronavirus hiatus, with four top-three performances (one victory). Matsuyama has been solid but unspectacular of late, so Berger has a better chance of going low.

First round: McIlroy to beat Todd (-162)

Todd is making his second-ever Tour Championship appearance and first since 2014. On the other hand, this East Lake venue is basically McIlroy’s stomping grounds. He has played this event six times, won it twice (including last year), finished runner-up once, and also placed in the top 10 (seventh) in 2018. The Northern Irishman’s course knowledge should come into play especially in the first round. Todd will be able to take notes in the 1:30 pm group on Thursday.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 No Sweat First Bet

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account and make your first deposit of $10+

Place your first bet up to $1,000!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5+ on any NFL Pre-Game ML, Get $200 If Your Bet Wins

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any NFL pre-game ML

Win $200 if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Unibet

$100

Get a $100 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $100 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $100

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

PointsBet

$800

Get 4x $200 In Free Bets

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Bet up to $200 and If you lose, you get a refund

You will receive Free Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $200 each for four days.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,250

Get a $1,250 risk-free bet

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Place your first bet of $10 or more

If your first bet loses, you’ll receive a refund up to $1,250 from Caesars in free bets

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

BetRivers

$500

Get Your First Bet Risk-Free Up To $500

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make your first deposit & get up to $500 in free bets

To get $500 in free bets, wager $500

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

DraftKings

$100

Bet $5+ on MLB and get $100 in Free Bets Instantly!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $100 no matter what!

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 in Free Bets With PointsBet's Second Chance

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Free Bets

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim Instant Deposit Match up to $100 + Free $5 game

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$200

Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back Up to $200 if you don't win

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $200

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.