Caleb Wilfinger
Show Bio
It’s been a well documented talking point thus far, but the home teams haven’t exactly fared well in this Division Series. The Baltimore Orioles were let down by their starting pitching and have fallen behind 2-0 in this best-of-5 series against the Texas Rangers. With their backs against the wall, can the Orioles extend this series another day? Let’s get into my Same Game Parlay, which pays out at over 5/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Orioles ML (+118)
Over 9 (-110)
Corey Seager to record 2+ total bases (-130)
Same Game Parlay Odds: +533
Orioles ML (+118)
Like most of the Orioles starters, Dean Kremer didn’t get off to a great start the season. His 6.67 ERA in April was cause for concern, but he did seem to figure things out as the season went on. Kremer followed up a 4.78 ERA in the first half of the season with a 3.25 ERA in the second half of the campaign and was an unsung hero for Baltimore during their late-season surge for the AL East crown. In fact, in his 14 starts after the all-star break, Kremer held opposing hitters to a .218 batting average and just a 34% hard-hit rate. Even against a red-hot Rangers lineup, Kremer should do enough to keep his team in the game.
Opposing the Baltimore starter will be playoff veteran Nathan Eovaldi. Heading into the postseason, Eovaldi looked like a shell of himself for the Rangers, pitching to a 9.30 ERA in his final 6 starts of the season. However, the experienced starter flipped a switch in the Wild Card round as he threw 6.2 terrific innings against the Rays, surrendering just 1 run and 6 hits while striking out 8. It’s still hard to figure out which version of Eovaldi we’re going to see in this contest, so I’d rather back the known commodity in Kremer and this O’s offense. It’s also hard not to be pessimistic about the Texas bullpen, which was terrible in Games 1 and 2. Let’s back Baltimore to extend the series for another game.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets
Over 9 (-110)
This is the first time during the postseason that the total has been set above 8.5, and that’s for good reason. For one, this Rangers team hits much better at home. Away from Arlington, the Rangers ranked 9th in batting average, 11th in OPS and 9th in wRC+ in the regular season. However, in front of their home fans, the Rangers ranked 4th in batting average, 2nd in OPS and 2nd in wRC+. Just those stats alone were good enough for the oddsmakers to push the total up at least half a run for today’s matchup.
Additionally, the pitching matchup we have is a bit shaky. Kremer has never appeared in a postseason game before and hasn’t even taken the mound since September 28. That mix of rest and postseason jitters could cause some problems for the visitors, so it’s hard to predict how the right-hander is going to do against a dangerous Texas lineup. On the other side of the coin, I still don’t have complete faith in Eovaldi. Yes, he has playoff experience and was able to shut out a Tampa Bay lineup in the Wild Card round, but that Rays offense looked completely dead for both playoff games so I can’t put too much stock into it. Let’s roll with an over at Globe Life Field.
Corey Seager to record 2+ total bases (-130)
For the majority of his career, Corey Seager has been an excellent postseason performer. Go back to his 2017 postseason with the Dodgers and you’ll find clutch hits galore. How about the 2020 postseason, where Seager was World Series MVP after hitting over .400 in the Fall Classic against the Rays. The shortstop is one of the best hitters in the game and he’s proven that again in this postseason, racking up 5 hits and driving in a pair of runs thus far. He’s also been walked a whopping 9 times, showing that he’s extremely locked in at the plate and not expanding the zone for opposing pitchers. Given the questions surrounding the Orioles pitching in this game, it’s hard not to like this price on Seager clearing 1.5 total bases in front of the home faithful in Arlington.
Read our full Orioles vs Rangers predictions
