We have close to a full schedule in Major League Baseball today with 14 games on offer and I have picked out my 3 best bets for the action. I’m on a 9-5-1 run and looking to add to that by making some more profit.
Let’s get into today’s predictions, but make sure you also check out the Pickswise team’s MLB picks for every game tonight.
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Yankees vs Mariners Over 7.5 (-105)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Yankees and Mariners close out their 3-game series in Seattle with New York going for the sweep. Seattle has been outscored in the first two games 20-6. The Yankees’ bats seem unstoppable right now. They have actually scored 10 runs in 3 straight games. It’s natural to expect some regression here. Seattle is starting George Kirby, whose numbers are respectable. He has a 3.43 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. But his numbers are home are worse than on the road. His ERA is almost 2.5 runs higher and opposing hitters are batting .284 against him.
The Yankees will send Clarke Schmidt to the hill. His numbers are not respectable. Schmidt has a 5.58 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. He’s only made it past 5.0 innings in 2 of his 11 starts this year and he has walked at least 2 batters in 5 straight. The Mariners’ offense should be able to take advantage. Even with the Yankees likely not scoring 10 runs for a fourth consecutive game, I still won’t stand in front of them. I don’t want to play the Yankees because sweeps are generally tough, especially on the road. If the Yankees get to 3 runs in this game, I think Seattle does the rest to push this total over 7.5.
Giants vs Pirates Over 7.5 (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The San Francisco Giants host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the rubber match of their 3-game series. It’s a good pitching matchup as the Giants start Alex Wood and the Pirates go with Mitch Kellar. Wood has a 3.51 ERA and has been the benefactor of the best run support in baseball as the Giants are scoring 8.5 runs per game for him and scored at least 6 runs in each of his last 3 starts. The Giants are 5-1 in his 6 starts this season.
Keller has been fantastic. With a 6-1 record, he also boasts a 3.01 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. Additionally, he has mowed down 85 batters in 68.2 innings. Keller has receiving nearly 5 runs of support per game. The Pirates’ offense isn’t too shabby, either, and they hit left-handed pitching very well. Despite the starters, I’m going to look to the over here as both of these teams are in the top half of MLB in First 5 runs scored. I know getaway days are typically lower scoring, but both of these bullpens also leave a lot to be desired — leaving the door open, as well, to late-game scoring. Let’s go over 7.5 runs
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Astros -1.5 over Twins (+110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Astros and Twins play the final game of their series in Houston after splitting the first 2. Houston has been a different team since Jose Altuve has returned to the lineup. They were 24-19 (.558 winning percentage), scoring just 4.4 runs per game with an OPS of just .689. Since his return on May 19, they are 8-3 (.727 winning percentage), scoring 4.8 runs per game and have an OPS of .777. The Twins will start Louie Varland, who has a 5.17 ERA on the road this season with opposing hitters batting .292 against him.
Houston gives the ball to Hunter Brown, who is 5-1 with a 3.12 ERA that drops to 2.86 at home. Walks have been an issue for Brown and if he can control them, I like Houston to win here. Since Altuve’s return, only 1 of the Astros’ 8 wins has come by 1 run. I’m willing to lay the 1.5 runs in this spot with an Astros lineup that is getting better each game. Plus, Brown is only allowing left-handed batters to hit .182 against him. That should neutralize the power bats of Joey Gallo and Trevor Larnach, as well. I will back the Astros on the run line at plus money.
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