MLB Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks same game parlay at (+544 odds): Alek Thomas stays hot in the desert

Arizona Diamondbacks third baseman Geraldo Perdomo celebrates with Alek Thomas (5) after hitting a two run home run against the Cincinnati Reds in the second inning at Chase Field.
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Keith

MLB · 1 month ago

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A Bostonian with a love for stats and baseball. Using knowledge and passion to find the right bet in MLB, NBA, NFL, and more. A lover of bold sports takes and sweat free plus odds picks.

This isn’t exactly a must-watch matchup as the Detroit Tigers are facing the Arizona Diamondbacks in the desert, but there is always an opportunity to make a same game parlay. The Tigers have been one of the worst squads in baseball when they play on the road as their batting average, slugging percentage and OPS all decline. Can Arizona take advantage of Detroit’s road woes tonight?

Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.

Diamondbacks ML (-166)

Merrill Kelly over 5.5 strikeouts (+116)

Alek Thomas 2+ total bases (+125)

Parlay odds: +544

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

Diamondbacks ML (-166)

The Tigers are the worst team in baseball when they play on the road. That is not an exaggeration; they rank 30th in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS when they don’t play at Comerica Park. They also average just 2.24 runs on the road, which is dead last by a lot. The Tigers make the Cincinnati Reds look good on the road and they rank 29th in runs scored at 3.06 runs. Detroit will start Rony Garcia, who is the perfect example for a pitcher that is due for negative regression. His 4.97 ERA isn’t great, but his 7.67 xERA is cause for concern. He has thrown 38.0 innings this season and has a 20% barrel percentage with a .317 xBA, so the Diamondbacks should be able to attack Garcia early and often.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Detroit Tigers vs Arizona Diamondbacks.

Merrill Kelly over 5.5 strikeouts (+116)

Being very transparent, Kelly has not recorded 6 strikeouts in many outings this season. His 20.3% strikeout rate doesn’t line up well with him recording 6 strikeouts on a consistent basis, but tonight’s game could be an exception. He will face a Tigers lineup that strikes out in 28.4% of their at-bats on the road, which is far greater than their 23.9% punch-out rate at home. Kelly has good stuff and has had a lot of success against this Detroit lineup in his career, so expect him to carve up the Tigers’ lineup.

Don’t miss our MLB parlays for tonight’s action!

Alek Thomas to record 2+ total bases (-125)

Alek Thomas might be the best hitter in Arizona’s lineup right now. Thomas is the Diamondbacks No. 1 prospect and he has been exceeding all expectations in year one. He has a .275 batting average with a .789 OPS in 142 at-bats in 2022 and is one of the fastest players in the league. He ranks in the 95th percentile for sprint speed, which helps this leg of the parlay since he could possibly turn a single into a double because of his speed. He recorded 5 total bases in his last game and has a .333 batting average in his last 15 games, so Thomas seems to be seeing the ball well.

What is a Same Game Parlay?

Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?

Pickswise is the home of free MLB picks and predictions. Make sure to also check out our MLB parlays and MLB prop bets tabs for more expert picks.

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