Wrapping up the work week will be a 14-game slate that starts in the late afternoon in Minnesota and ends with a 10:10 pm first pitch between the Cardinals and Dodgers in L.A. I’ve combined 3 of my favorite picks into a parlay that pays out at over 10/1 odds.
Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Friday.
Cubs -1.5 (+155)
Mariners ML (+105)
Braves -1.5 (+125)
Parlay odds: +1076
All of today’s biggest games are available to bet with BetMGM, the premier destination for online sports betting. New customers can earn themselves a $1,000 deposit bonus by signing up right now! Click here to lock in this great sign-up offer.
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+155) over Miami Marlins
Marcus Stroman has been one of the best pitchers in baseball to start the season. He has a 2.17 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP after 5 starts and it was his last start that ballooned his ERA. It sounds weird to say it ballooned up to 2.00, but it’s true. Stroman allowed 5 runs on 6 hits, which included 3 home runs, in 5 innings for his shortest start of the season. Three home runs allowed is incredibly surprising from Stroman since he had not allowed one in the 4 starts prior and because he is a ground-ball pitcher. In 29.0 innings, 60.3% of balls put in play against him have been on the ground. That has been the root of his success, which should continue against an underperforming Marlins offense.
Three weeks into the season, Miami ranks 29th in runs per game. Luis Arraez continues to get on base at an absurdly high rate, but the same can’t be said for the rest of their offense. The Marlins’ best attribute has been their starting pitching which is led by Sandy Alcantara and tonight’s starter, Jesus Luzardo. The lefty has been solid at the start of the season with a 3.62 ERA after 5 starts, but he is coming off his worst 2 starts. He has allowed 7 runs and 14 hits in his last 8.2 innings, and opponents are hitting .350 in the pair of outings. Between Luzardo becoming more hittable recently and the Cubs ranking in the top 10 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS against left-handed pitching, I’m taking a shot at the visitors winning by at least 2 runs at excellent odds.
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI picks for Friday
Seattle Mariners ML (+105) over Toronto Blue Jays
It’s not every day that a pitcher with a 1.52 ERA is an underdog, but that’s the situation we find ourselves in on Friday night. Luis Castillo has been phenomenal through 5 starts and has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of his those 5. Castillo’s most recent outing was his most human as he surrendered 3 runs and 7 hits in 5.0 innings to a strong Cardinals lineup. However, he did still manage to strike out 8 of the 15 outs — so his outing can best be described as a few well-timed hits that turned into a few runs. The St. Louis hitters had a .318 batting average but just a .238 xBA, meaning the ace got unlucky several times throughout his outing. The risky part of this wager is the Mariners’ offense, which has been slightly unreliable this season. However, I like their chances against Toronto’s starting pitcher.
After an incredible 2022 campaign, Alek Manoah has struggled to find his identity this season. He has a 5.13 ERA paired with a 6.99 xERA after 5 starts, and the biggest reason for his struggles has been his control. Manoah had just 51 walks in 196.2 innings last year, which came out to just a 6.5% walk rate — well below the league average. But this season, Manoah has allowed 16 free passes in only 26.1 innings. He had a terrible first 4 starts before having a bounce-back start against the Yankees last week, as he threw 7.0 scoreless innings and allowed just 2 hits. However, I’m not buying his improvement — especially not because even though he held the Bronx Bombers hitters to just a .087 average, they had a .243 xBA. Manoah got really lucky, and the Mariners should be the perfect team to bring him back to reality.
If you’re looking to get more out of your bets, then Caesars is the sportsbook for you. It’s the only sportsbook with Caesars rewards AND has a great sign-up offer where you can get up to $1,250 back on your first bet! Click here to sign up.
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+125) over New York Mets
The southpaw showdown in Queens heavily favors one team — even if the odds don’t reflect it. Max Fried and the Braves have once again started the season strong with a 17-9 record through the first 3 weeks. And although Fried has only made 3 starts due to an injury, he has been incredible. He has allowed only 1 earned run and 11 hits in 15 innings, and importantly, Fried has given up just 3 walks and no home runs. And although he’s been limited to just 3 starts, the talent of his opposition hasn’t suffered. His last 2 outings came against the Padres and Astros, who sport some of the biggest stars in baseball. All of Fried’s advanced metrics indicate that his success has been well-deserved which makes me believe it will continue on Friday night.
Atlanta has been mashing left-handed pitching this season, and that shouldn’t stop against David Peterson. They are 6-2 against left-handed pitchers in addition to ranking 1st in slugging percentage and ISO along with 4th in wRC+. Their next victim will be the southpaw Peterson, who has had a less-than-stellar start to the season. His 7.36 ERA and 1.64 WHIP don’t turn any heads, but what does is the number of homers he has allowed. Peterson has given up 7 home runs in only 25.2 innings and now has to face an Atlanta lineup that ranks 1st in home runs against left-handed pitchers. This game should be all Braves from the start.
Bet365 – the world’s #1 sportsbook – has arrived in the United States! If you sign up right now and bet just $1, you can immediately get $200 in bonus bets! Join Bet365 by clicking this link.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
