MLB Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants same game parlay (+475 odds) 7/16: Wilmer Flores feasts by the bay

San Francisco Giants hitter Wilmer Flores
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Mark Lammey

MLB · 4 weeks ago

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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind.

After cashing our +340 same game parlay involving the Rockies last night, let’s hit another one today with a different NL West team. The Giants have been hosting the Brewers since Thursday, and have split the series so far. It’s been a close one as well. The Brewers won a 1-run game in the 10th inning for the series opener, and the Giants had a dramatic walk-off grand slam last night. With how evenly these teams seem to be, it’s great to be able to target plenty of other markets besides the side.

Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.

Both teams over 3.5 total runs (+245)

Wilmer Flores 2+ total bases (+135)

Parlay odds: +475

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

Both teams over 3.5 total runs (+245)

Rather than sweating out a winner into the 9th inning or later, we’re going to bank on each lineup performing up to their potential. This play hit on Friday, and should again tonight. As the series goes on, the starting pitching for both teams continues to get weaker. The argument could be made that the series opener ended with a low final score of 3-2. However, that had 2 NL Cy Young candidates on the mound with Brewer Corbin Burnes and Giant Carlos Rodon. Last night still had great starters like Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff and San Francisco’s Alex Wood, and it still finished with plenty of runs. It took a late rally from the Giants, but it shouldn’t take nearly as long tonight.

San Francisco has had lefties on the mound for each of the first 2 games of the series, but will now be the ones hitting a lefty today. That’s great news for their side of things. While the Brewers are the 6th-worst lineup against lefties, the Giants are the 6th-best. Therefore, they should have no issue producing against Brewer Eric Lauer, who just lost his last start to a weak Pirates lineup. Similarly, Milwaukee can do their part against righty Alex Cobb. He’s allowed 3 runs in each of his last 2 starts, both of which were against the Diamondbacks. The Brewers have a far more explosive lineup than Arizona. As long as that trend continues, Milwaukee should get to at least 4 runs with the Giants bullpen now the 10th-worst in the league.

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants

Wilmer Flores 2+ total bases (+135)

One hitter that should boost the Giants’ ability to produce at least 4 runs is Wilmer Flores. He should be nice and rested, as he only came in to pinch-hit last night. Despite that, he still leads the team with 128 total bases. That’s ahead of teammate Joc Pederson, who gets a lot of the attention for his power. Flores has power of his own as well; he has 13 home runs and 17 doubles on the year. He doesn’t have the biggest sample size against Lauer, but still has a .780 OPS against the lefty.

Flores should be confident heading into this one, as he entered this series hitting this prop in 5 straight games. That includes 10 total bases against the Padres, and 4 of those 5 were games with at least 4 total bases. We only need 2 tonight, and Flores should deliver.

What is a Same Game Parlay?

Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?

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