Welcome to another week of baseball. Monday’s are usually smaller days in the MLB, but today we have an unusually large 12 game slate. I’m certainly not complaining since that means more games to choose from to create todays’s mega parlay, which pays out at over 9/1 odds.
Also be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every matchup, but for now let’s get into Monday’s MLB mega parlay.
Rangers -1.5 (+120)
Blue Jays ML (+105)
Giants vs Twins alternate total Under 8 (+130)
Parlay odds: +937
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Texas Rangers -1.5 (+120) over Pittsburgh Pirates
A year has made a huge difference in the growth of Dane Dunning. Unlike last year, Dunning is no longer the 4th or 5th man in a rotation. After beginning the season in the bullpen, where he made 8 appearances with a 1.77 ERA and a 0.836 WHIP, he was swiftly recalled back to the rotation when Jacob deGrom sustained an injury. In his 3 starts since making a comeback as a starter, Dunning has made the most of his opportunity, posting a 2-0 record, a 1.59 ERA, and a 0.941 WHIP. Given that he faced some of the strongest lineups in baseball, including the Braves, Angels and Mariners, his success has been very impressive.
Pittsburgh’s magical start to the season is far gone by now. They have a collective batting average of just .210 over their last 18 games, losing 14 of them. They also have a 68 wRC+ and a league-worst 26.1% strikeout rate, so things are going from bad to worse in Pittsburgh. On the bump for the home team will be Luis Ortiz, who has made 2 starts this year, going 8.0 innings while surrendering 9 runs, 14 hits and 5 walks. His advanced metrics, which include a .363 xBA, 9.38 xERA, 48.6% hard-hit rate and 40% sweet-spot rate, illustrate that it has not been an unlucky start by any means. Furthermore, the fact that his 2 starts were against the Rockies and Tigers, who are rank 25th and 29th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, might be even more worrisome. The Rangers are one of the top teams against right-handed pitchers, ranking 5th in that category. I see this game going only one way, and that’s in favor of Texas.
Don’t miss our MLB best bet in our Rangers vs Pirates predictions
Toronto Blue Jays ML (+105) over Tampa Bay Rays
Whenever you join a new team, you want to make a good first impression – especially when you’re getting paid nearly $20 million a year. Those hopes were shattered by the Cardinals, as they pounded Chris Bassitt for 9 runs in just 3.1 innings during his first start in a Blue Jays uniform. However, in recent weeks, he has completely turned things around. Bassitt has faced the Pirates, Braves, and Yankees in his last 3 starts, and he has pitched 23 innings without allowing a run. Additionally, during that time, hitters have only registered 9 hits against him while batting .123 with a .195 xBA. Bassitt took a few weeks to develop into the 3rd ace Toronto was looking for, and with the way he’s pitching right now, the growing pains were worth it.
Beating the Rays on the home field has been one of the toughest things to do this season. They are 21-3 at the Trop, which makes this an uphill battle for the Blue Jays — but that’s why the price is so good. Plus, the Rays have elected to make this a bullpen game, which is why Trevor Kelley is starting. The reliever has made 4 appearances this year, including 1 start, and has pitched 6.0 innings while giving up 5 runs and 6 hits. Kelley hasn’t pitched in many high-stakes scenarios and only lasts 1 or 2 innings before he reaches his maximum pitch count. That means we will likely see a long reliever from the 2nd to 5th inning before a few more relievers come in. And although Tampa Bay’s bullpen has been a strong suit for them this season, like always, they have not had an off day since last Monday, so fatigued arms are definitely a factor. With the better starting pitcher on the mound, it’s hard not to like Toronto tonight.
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San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins Under 8 (+130)
Oddsmakers are expecting a higher-scoring game in Minnesota based on the total, but I like the chances of the starting pitchers keeping this game to just a handful of runs. Bailey Ober is the starter for the Twins, and the forgotten member of their staff has been doing exceptionally well through his first month of action. It’s hard to stand out in the Twins’ rotation right now because of how well Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez have been pitching, so he’s stuck in the shadows with a 1.78 ERA. He’s made 5 starts this season and has allowed 2 runs or less in 4 of the 5 outings. The only time he failed to continue the trend was against the Padres when he allowed 3 runs, but even that start was impressive. However, the most eye-opening performance was his last one against the Dodgers because L.A. has been smashing right-handed pitching, but Ober limited them to 1 run and 6 hits in 6 innings of work.
It’s a bullpen game for the Giants, as John Brebbia will start for the 3rd time this season. The reliever has a 4.26 ERA and a 2.28 xERA in 21 appearances and will likely only go the first 3 outs since he pitched 2 outs in last night’s game. But 3 outs are all the Giants will need from Brebbia to set the tone before handing the ball off to the next guy. We could see Sean Manaea come out of the bullpen and take the brunt of the workload in the middle innings, and although the lefty has not been great this year Minnesota has struggled against southpaws. The Twins rank 22nd in wRC+ and also have the 2nd highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, so if there was a time for Manaea to get back to being himself, it’s against the Twins.
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