Ricky Dimon
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The weekend in Major League Baseball features a full 15-game slate on Saturday. It begins with the Yankees hosting the Astros (with Justin Verlander on the mound) and also includes a showdown between the Dodgers and Padres on FS1.
The YRFI/NRFI market has become extremely popular in baseball betting. After all, you don’t have to sit around for 3 hours (or maybe a lot less now that games are not as long on average!) to see if your wager hits; the satisfaction (or in some cases disappointment) is immediate. It all comes down to the first inning.
Here are my favorite YRFI/NRFI plays for Saturday, and also be sure to check out all of our MLB picks.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers: NRFI (-125)
This wasn’t the most eventful trade deadline in MLB history, but more than a few top-shelf starting pitchers changed teams. In addition to Verlander taking his talents from New York back to Houston, Aaron Civale went from Cleveland to Tampa Bay. Civale will make his Rays debut on Saturday, bringing with him from the Guardians a 5-2 record and a 2.34 ERA. The right-hander has been utterly dominant in the first inning this season. He has allowed a grand total of 1 run in the opening frame and has pitched to the NRFI in 8 consecutive outings. Civale now faces a Detroit club that is 24th in the league in first-inning runs scored.
The Tigers are countering with Tarik Skubal, who has been solid since joining the rotation in early July. Skubal has not surrendered a single first-inning tally in 5 appearances and 3 of his starts have been scoreless across at least 4.0 innings of work. The Rays are a decent first-inning offense, but they are scoring 0.6 runs per first inning on the road compared to 0.7 at home. Nobody in the Tampa Bay lineup has ever gotten more than 2 hits lifetime off Skubal. I will happily roll with the NRFI at a decent –125 price.
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Houston Astros vs New York Yankees: NRFI (-118)
It’s not like Verlander will require any kind of adjustment period with his “new” team, as he pitched for the Astros for 4-plus years prior to signing with the Mets this past offseason. The 40-year-old was awesome down the stretch of his brief time with the Mets, compiling a 1.69 ERA in July after allowing 1 run or fewer in 3 of his 5 June outings. Verlander gave up just 2 total runs in his last 3 starts with the Mets, spanning 19.1 innings. He will go up against a Yankees offense that has really sputtered of late has gone 6 straight games without crossing the plate in the opening frame.
Opposing Verlander is Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. Cortes has not pitched since late May due to a shoulder injury, so it is true that he is a bit of a wild card. But, hey, at least he is well rested! Cortes allowed a first-inning run in only 1 of 5 May appearances and I think he can limit Houston at least for a while on Saturday. The Astros scored 3 right away on Friday, but that was against Luis Severino – who has been nothing short of horrendous in 2023 and is pretty much an automatic YRFI every time he takes the mound. Prior to Friday’s result the ‘Stros had slumped through 6 consecutive contests without putting a run on the scoreboard in the opening frame. If Cortes can battle his way to a perfect top of the first, Verlander can then bring us home.
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