We have a very fun board of games on Friday April 24, and there are 4 best bets standing out to me that I’d like to share. Unfortunately, there are no day baseball games on today’s schedule, but that will allow you plenty of time to scan the board and find some value. Let’s dive in and discuss my favorite looks for Friday!
MLB Best Bet: Pittsburgh Pirates ML Over Milwaukee Brewers (-135)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145.
The best division in Major League Baseball through 4 weeks of play as been the National League Central. All 5 teams enter Friday at least 2 games above .500 with Pittsburgh and Milwaukee set to face off for the first time this season. Both teams enter this series off a series loss with Pittsburgh losing 2 of 3 games in Texas and Milwaukee losing 2 of 3 games in Detroit. I am fired up for all 3 games of this weekend series, but Friday’s game is an especially fun pitching matchup.
Paul Skenes had his last outing shortened by a 2-hour rain delay, a game in which Pittsburgh blew a 4-0 lead. Paul was sharp in his 4 innings of work, however, shutting out the Rays while recording 5 strikeouts with 0 walks issued. Through 22 innings Skenes ranks 90th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, xBA, and xERA, and his command of the zone has been improved in his last 2 starts. Milwaukee is a tough lineup, ranking 8th in wOBA with a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but Skenes has held active Brewers to a .583 OPS in 46 combined plate appearances. Pittsburgh also has their high leverage arms rested behind Skenes for the final 2 of 3 innings.
Brandon Woodruff is set to make his 5th start of the year for the Brewers on Friday. Woodruff allowed 2 solo home runs in his season opener against Tampa Bay but survived that outing with 5 innings of 2-run ball. He struggled in Boston during his 2nd start with 5 earned runs allowed. Woodruff has looked sharper in his last 2 outings against Washington and Miami, tossing 13 innings with 2 earned runs allowed. That being said, Woodruff has seen a dip in strikeout production with his 32nd percentile whiff rate and just a 21.3% strikeout rate. He is not a ground ball pitcher and if the strikeout rate remains this low it will be challenging for Woodruff to earn those easy outs in 2026. Pittsburgh has also been decent against right-handers ranking 13th in wOBA with a wRC+ of 103. At current pricing I side with the Pirates.
MLB Best Bet: New York Yankees ML over Houston Astros (-142)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150.
I have a 2nd ML wager on Friday’s board as I favor the New York Yankees over the Houston Astros at current pricing. Will Warren is the scheduled starter for the Yankees while they open their series in Houston. New York doesn’t get a day off following the conclusion of their road series in Boston yesterday. In an odd way I prefer that though, as New York is fresh off back-to-back sweeps of underachieving American League teams. They dominated Kansas City at home before winning 3 low-scoring battles in Boston. Now New York seeks another series win against an AL team under .500.
I would assume the favorable pricing for this game has to do with the travel for New York and Will Warren’s home/road splits in 2025. Warren has a 3.50 ERA in 87.1 home innings last season but in 75 road innings his ERA jumped to 5.52. There were a few blow up outings against the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Red Sox that contributed to the large majority of those runs allowed on the road. He did deliver 5 innings of 2-run ball in Houston in September, albeit against a portion of the lineup he will see today. Warren’s only road start so far was in San Francisco against a poor lineup in a pitcher’s park.
Houston has a very good lineup, ranking 3rd in wOBA with 121 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. New York is right behind them ranking 4th in wOBA with a 115 wRC+ against right-handers. I find the difference in this game to be between the starting pitchers. Warren, despite his possible road concerns, has the stronger underlying metrics. His 3.67 xERA and 3.07 FIP outperform Lance McCullers Jr. and his 4.51 xERA and 3.99 FIP. McCullers Jr. was great against Boston to begin his season but has looked shaky in each of his last 3 starts, allowing 13 earned runs in those 13.1 innings of work. His poor command, poor batted ball metrics, and middling whiff rate is a poor recipe for success against this Yankees lineup. Look for New York to win what could be a higher scoring game.
MLB Best Bet: Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays F5 innings under 4 (-120)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Switching gears a bit from the sides as I’d like to dive into my favorite total on the board for Friday’s slate of games. This is the Taj Bradley game as the Twins right-hander makes his return to Tampa Bay to face the team that traded him last season. Bradley began his career with Tampa Bay, tossing 354 innings across 69 career outings. His talent was evident during stretches, but he was never able to sustain success in a Tampa Bay uniform. Minnesota acquired him at the trade deadline last season for Griffin Jax, and Bradley struggled in his 31.1 innings with the Twins. His 6.61 ERA in that stretch is a distant memory for Twins fans as the current form of Bradley has their hopes high on his potential.
Bradley has a 1.63 ERA through his first 5 starts. His 34 strikeouts across 27.2 innings have been accompanied by 0 home runs allowed. That is due to a 78th percentile barrel rate. Bradley won’t be able to sustain a strand rate of 86.1%, but opponents won’t have a BABIP of .333 against him all season either. I believe the right-hander is set for a true breakout season in his first full year with Minnesota. Tampa Bay ranks 16th in wOBA with a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Minnesota is also posting a 101 wRC+ against righties while sitting 17th in wOBA. The Twins lineup will face Drew Rasmussen as the Tampa Bay starter is set to make his 5th start of the season. His last outing was his worst of the season, allowing 4 earned runs on separate 2-run home runs to Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna. Rasmussen had been sharp in his previous 3 outings, however, allowing just 2 earned runs across 16 combined innings of work. He is a very reliable starting option for Tampa Bay, and his 2.79 xERA is nearly identical to his 2.75 ERA so far. Look for a slow start offensively to this game.
MLB Best Bet: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Last but not least let’s add a player prop to the card. Sandy Alcantara looked lights out in his season debut for the Marlins, tossing 7 shutout innings in just 73 pitches. It was against the Rockies, but impressive, nonetheless. He followed that up with a complete game shutout against the White Sox in just 93 pitches. His 3rd consecutive home start to begin the season resulted in 8.1 more innings of 2-run ball against the Reds. Sandy got shelled in his first road outing of the season, allowing 7 earned runs on 3 home runs against the Tigers in Detroit. He returned home for his 5th start of the season but uncharacteristically walked 6 Brewers. Alcantara survived that start with just 2 earned runs allowed in 5 innings of work.
This will be Sandy’s 2nd road start of the season, but it is in an ideal pitching environment and in a matchup that favors him. Oracle Park is perhaps the premier pitcher’s park in MLB and Sandy should have no excuse for being on the road in this spot. San Francisco is a favorable matchup for any right-handed pitcher currently. In the early stages of the season San Francisco ranks dead last in wOBA against right-handed pitching while posting a wRC+ of 70. They are not walking and they are hitting the ball into the ground with the 5th highest ground ball rate. San Francisco has faced 20 right-handed starting pitchers so far this season with 12 of them remaining under 2.5 earned runs allowed. This includes 7 of 10 to face them in San Francisco. I expect Sandy to be focused on pounding the zone after walking 6 batters in his last start and I look for him to remain under 2.5 earned runs allowed for the 5th time in his first 6 starts.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
