Caleb Wilfinger
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The MLB playoffs are in full swing and we’ve now reached the first game of this NLCS matchup between the Phillies and Padres. One of the quickest MLB bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will only take about 15 minutes.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out all of our MLB predictions for this week’s MLB playoff games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres: YRFI (+125)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
With most postseason games featuring quality pitching, it’s difficult to find spots to back a first-inning run. However, I think this is a good spot to back a couple of red-hot offenses in this contest. The Phillies lineup has been absolutely rolling since the Wild Card round against the Cardinals, and I expect that to continue. And it just happens that Philadelphia’s top hitters have really strong numbers off Yu Darvish. Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Schwarber in particular have gone deep against Darvish and they should have a chance to do so in the first. Darvish allowed a first-inning run in his last outing against the Dodgers and a similar result could be on the horizon.
Zack Wheeler has been one of the National League’s best pitchers this season, but he has a tough task here. Wheeler has great numbers against most teams, but the Padres are not one of those teams. Juan Soto and Josh Bell have a combined 19 hits off Wheeler, 6 of which went for extra bases. Jurickson Profar and Ha-Seong Kim also have batting averages over .300 in their limited plate appearances against Wheeler. Those four hitters, along with Manny Machado, typically sit at the top of San Diego’s lineup. This offense was able to get to Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin in the first inning and I’m expecting more of the same tonight. Nerves could be a factor for both starters as well, which plays into our chances for cashing this YRFI at plus-money.
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