If you aren’t interested in a bet that will take 9 innings, one of the shortest-lasting bets you can make in an MLB game is if a run will be scored in the first inning. All it takes is 6 outs to glory, and one swing of the bat can make or break your bet.
There is also a lot of value in these bets because the odds are usually very well-priced, and if you’re not a fan of sweating out your bets for 3 hours then this one will take only about 15 minutes to win or lose. Before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game on Wednesday.
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Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs: NRFI (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The best pitching matchup of the day takes place in north Chicago as Zach Eflin of the Rays takes on the rising Cubs star Justin Steele. Steele burst onto the scene last season and he finished 2022 with a 3.18 ERA in 24 starts and had Cubs fans looking forward to this season. The lefty has not disappointed since he has a 2.77 ERA and a 3.22 xERA after 11 starts. The best part of Steele’s game has been his ability to limit hard contact and use his secondary pitches to get a lot of weak contact because the lefty ranks in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. One thing that makes the lefty unique is that he relies on just 2 pitches for 95% of his pitches, and usually, you only see that in relievers. But Steele has made it work because his fastball has excellent spin to it and his slider has 141% more horizontal movement than the average slider.
The Rays hit the jackpot this offseason by signing Eflin. In 9 starts, he has a 3.17 ERA with a 2.98 xERA and the lowest xBA of his 8-year career. But more specifically for this bet, Eflin has been lights out in the first inning. He’s allowed just 2 earned runs and has limited hitters to a .133 batting average during the first frame this season. In his 9 starts, he’s allowed a first-inning run just twice. He’s been the ideal guy to back in the opening inning this season, and that shouldn’t stop against the Cubs. Eflin’s combination of a sinker and cutter should keep the ball on the ground and lead the game into the second inning without a score.
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San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins: NRFI (-118)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
One of the slowest starting offenses in baseball is the Miami Marlins. The Fish have failed to score a first-inning run in 81.48% of their games this season before Tuesday night. You would think having the on-base machine Luis Arraez would help, but he’s been moved to the cleanup spot, which means he won’t come up in the first frame unless someone before him gets on — and that’s exactly what Miami is struggling with right now. Without Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the lineup, they’ve had to rely on the rookie Jonathan Davis, the veteran Joey Wendle, and the off-and-on slugger Jorge Soler at the top of the lineup. Admittedly, Soler has been on fire in May with home run after home run, so he will be crucial to get out if you’re Blake Snell.
On the mound for Miami will be the lefty Braxton Garrett, a 4th-year man looking to make his mark in the Marlins rotation. Through 10 games (9 starts), Garrett has a 4.50 ERA with a 22.6% strikeout rate. Not bad from the lefty, but where he excels is the first inning. Garrett has allowed just 2 first-inning runs this season and has limited hitters to a .194 batting average with a .235 on-base percentage. He’s thrown a scoreless opening frame in 6 straight outings and will be looking to make it 7 against the Padres. Garrett will be opposed by Blake Snell, another lefty that has been mediocre for the season but is great in the first inning. In the first frame, Snell has allowed just 3 earned runs and has limited hitters to a .216 batting average. He’s thrown a scoreless first frame in 7 of his last 8 starts, and I like his chances against a slow-starting Marlins offense. I’m taking the NRFI in Miami on Wednesday evening.
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