Caleb Wilfinger
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With plenty of MLB games taking place each day, one of the quickest bets you can make is if a run will be scored in the first inning. There is value to be had and this market has become very popular over time. If you don’t like sweating out your bets for 3 hours, this one will take only about 15 minutes. I’m on a 25-8 run with my YRFI/NRFI plays, so let’s keep this momentum going! But before we dive in, don’t forget to check out our MLB picks for every game today.
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Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres: NRFI (-125)
For my first pick on Wednesday’s slate, I’m taking the NRFI in this clash between NL playoff hopefuls in the Marlins and Padres. I targeted the NRFI in this tie on Tuesday and we’re going right back to the well for Wednesday’s game. Both of these pitchers should hold advantages over opposing hitters, especially with Sandy Alcantara back to his old Cy Young form in recent weeks. The Marlins ace has nearly lowered his ERA a full point in the last 2 months, plus the Padres’ top-of-the-lineup doesn’t have great career numbers against Sandy. That points to a short inning for the hosts, and the same should be true of the Marlins’ middling lineup against Seth Lugo, who has surrendered just 2 runs in 4 of his last 5 outings. This should be a quick opening frame, so let’s go with the NRFI.
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Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers: NRFI (-120)
For my second pick on Wednesday’s card, I’m going with the NRFI in this tie between the Twins and Brewers. I’ve backed both of these starting pitchers in this spot this summer, and we’re going back there again on Wednesday. Kenta Maeda has gotten off to strong starts repeatedly since the all-star break, and he’s still due for some pretty massive positive regression (xERA of 3.74). The lefty should get off to a good start, and the same should be true of Corbin Burnes. Burnes has largely been outstanding over his last 10 outings, including 7 innings of shutout ball against a red-hot Dodgers team in his last start. Given the edge both of these starters should have early, I have no problem backing the NRFI.
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