MLB St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals same game parlay at (+475 odds) today 7/30 - Nolan Arenado carries the Cards

St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado (28) points towards third baseman Brendan Donovan (not pictured) after scoring on a RBI double by Donovan against the Chicago Cubs in the tenth inning at Wrigley Field.
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Mark Lammey

MLB · 2 weeks ago

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I've been a capper since my love for sports met my proficiency with numbers and math. The NFL and NCAAF have always been my first loves, followed by the NHL. Although I prefer sports that involve hitting people, I still love capping MLB, soccer, tennis, and even some esports. Living in Florida has its perks like year-round sports of any kind.

The Cardinals were able to start this series with nearly an identical score to how they finished their last. That was in Toronto without NL MVP-favorite Paul Goldschmidt and fellow candidate Nolan Arenado. While they weren’t expected to win that game, they are expected to take care of the Nationals. St. Louis has gotten their superstars back, and Washington is about to send their superstar in Juan Soto out of town. However, let’s focus on making today’s game profitable in the meantime. Along with this same game parlay, be sure to check out our thoughts on the side and total for all of today’s games.

Cardinals -1.5 (+106)

Over 0.5 1st inning runs (-122)

Nolan Arenado 2+ total bases (+105)

Parlay odds: +475

Let’s take a closer look at each leg of our same game parlay.

Cardinals -1.5 (+106)

Wearing red is about the only 2 things these teams have in common. The Cardinals are in the midst of battling for the lead in the NL Central, while the Nationals have the worst record in the entire league. Even without Adam Wainwright on any other dominant starter, St. Louis is still the significant favorite on the road. However, just about any pitching matchup is superior to that of Washington. They have the 2nd-highest team ERA in the league, and arguably the worst starting rotation. As if their issues on the mound weren’t enough, Soto turning down 440 million dollars to stay with the team speaks volumes.

Washington has enough issues on a macro level, so let’s focus on this matchup specifically. Starter Erick Fedde doesn’t have the double-digit losses of teammates Patrick Corbin and Joan Adon, but he’s still a part of a terrible rotation. The Nats have lost 3 of his 4 starts this month, being outscored 21-7 in the process. Even without Goldschmidt and Arenado, the Cardinals took down the Blue Jays by multiple runs heading into this series. With them in the lineup, there is no reason to doubt them against Fedde and the league’s 6th-worst bullpen. St. Louis won’t have an ace on the mound either with Dakota Hudson, but they have the ability to produce enough run support for him. He’s already led the team to multi-run wins over the Red Sox and Padres, and can do the same against the Nationals.    

Be sure to check out our full game preview for the St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals

Over 0.5 1st inning runs (-122)

Just as Washington’s terrible starting rotation has allowed teams to win games against them, it’s also provided plenty of early action. That should be the case on Saturday with Fedde on the mound. He’s allowed a run in the 1st inning in 2 of his last 3 starts, including the most recent against a mediocre Diamondbacks lineup. Now he’s guaranteed to face Goldschmidt batting in the 3rd spot, and a great leadoff man in Tommy Edman. He’s approaching 100 hits on the season, making it all the more likely Arenado gets an at-bat in the cleanup spot. 

This is where the Nationals actually deserve some credit. They have this year’s home run derby-winner Soto guaranteed a 1st-inning at-bat, and he hasn’t even been their best hitter. Cesar Hernandez is also approaching 100 hits, and Josh Bell eclipsed that mark long ago and is 1 of the leaders in National League. With so many great hitters at the top of each lineup taking the batter’s box in a stadium that ranks in the top 10 for both extra-base hits and overall runs, expect a run in the 1st frame.   

Don’t forget to check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for today – we’re on a 28-12 run!

Nolan Arenado 2+ total bases (+105)

There’s no denying that Goldschmidt gets the majority of the attention for the Cardinals, and rightfully so. However, Arenado is still a candidate for NL MVP, albeit a longshot, for a reason. He’ll likely fall short of that season award to his teammate, but he can still perform tonight. His 182 total bases is the 10th-most in the National League, and he’s gotten them in just 92 games. That’s just 8 more than Shohei Ohtani, who’s played in 97 games. 

Thankfully he won’t have to face Ohtani on the mound either, and will instead be facing the Nationals terrible pitching staff. Arenado doesn’t have a history against Fedde, but he’s proven to be matchup-proof this season anyway. The former-Rockie hit this prop in back-to-back games against Dodgers pitchers Tony Gonsolin and Tyler Anderson just before the all-star break. Finally is the great value we’re getting at this number. While Goldschmidt is listed at -140, getting plus-money on Arenado is the way to go.

Don’t miss our MLB mega parlay for tonight’s action (+1131 odds!)

What is a Same Game Parlay?

Check out our guide on what is a same game parlay and where can I bet it?

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