Another week of baseball is almost in the books, but before we can officially close the book on this week, all 30 teams are taking the field today. It’s an action-packed slate that starts in Philadelphia with the Phillies taking on the Rockies and ends with Sunday Night Baseball in San Francisco between the Mets and Giants. Also, be sure to check out our MLB predictions for every game, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Sunday.
Phillies alternate line -2.5 (+116)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+120)
Cubs ML (+125)
Parlay odds: +969
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Philadelphia Phillies -2.5 (+116) over Colorado Rockies
Another game, another opportunity to fade Jose Urena. As Urena’s career plummeted after leaving the Marlins, one of baseball’s most profitable spots this year has been fading him. Through 4 starts, Urena has an xBA, xERA, xSLG, strikeout rate, hard-hit rate and more that place him in the bottom 10% of pitchers. Urena is having a terrible season, and I anticipate that it will only get worse when he faces a Phillies lineup that annihilates right-handed pitching. Limiting extra-base hits has been one of Urena’s issues, and there are many. In just 14.2 innings, he has given up 6 doubles, 3 triples and 7 home runs, which has caused the opposition to hit .364 with a monstrous 1.275 OPS.
Despite playing half of their games at Coors Field, the Rockies’ offense has been underperforming. Heading into Sunday, they had scored 3 or fewer runs in 8 of their last 9 games as well as losing 10 of their last 11. And unfortunately for them, they have to face Zack Wheeler in his home park. Wheeler has gained the reputation for being one of the best pitchers at home ever since he joined the Phillies. Last year, the ace had a 1.85 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP in his 13 outings at Citizens Bank Park. This season, he has a 2.38 ERA and has limited the opposition to a .200 batting average at home. I’ll take the Phillies for a big win at home.
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (+120) over New York Yankees
I’m not a big believer in Clarke Schmidt. The Yankees’ reliever-turned-starter has struggled in the rotation this season with an 8.79 ERA and a 7.40 xERA through 4 outings. His plethora of pitches has not worked to his advantage since opponents are hitting at least .286 against his sweeper, cutter and sinker. And looking at Schmidt’s opponents thus far, it’s concerning to see those numbers that high. The toughest offense he has faced has been the Angels, who have a solid top of the order with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, but it doesn’t compete with Toronto’s. George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman make up the best first four hitters of any team, but what makes the Blue Jays special is their talented lineup from the leadoff spot to the 9-hole.
If it wasn’t for a walk-off win by New York on Saturday afternoon, Kevin Gausman would be pitching for the sweep. The right-hander is coming off his worst start of the season against the Astros, but prior to that outing, Gausman had allowed only 3 earned runs in 20 innings. He’s the far better pitcher in this matchup, and the ace should find success against a New York offense that has been boom-or-bust recently. If Gausman can limit the extra-base hits, I think they can come away with a big win in the series finale.
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Chicago Cubs ML (+125) over Los Angeles Dodgers
The last leg of this parlay involves backing a home dog in the North Side of Chicago. Although they are the underdogs, the Cubs hold one very important advantage in this game — they are facing a lefty. That lefty is Clayton Kershaw, who has been solid this season, but it’s too hard to overlook Chicago’s success against left-handers. Chicago is 5-1 and rank in the top 5 in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS against left-handed starters. Their last game against a lefty starter was in the second game of this series against the rising star, Julio Urias. However, the Cubs made quick work of him. They put up 5 runs and 7 hits against him in just 3.1 innings en route to a 13-0 win. Chicago has faced a wide variety of left-handed talent, and no matter who it’s been, they’ve found a way to be successful.
Marcus Stroman has been nothing short of fantastic this season. After 4 starts, Stroman has a 0.75 ERA paired with a 0.92 WHIP. He has consistently put the Cubs in a position to win, and they’ve done just that since they’ve been victorious in 3 of his 4 outings. Stroman’s success comes from his 63.2% ground ball rate, which is nearly 20% higher than the league average. Keeping the ball on the ground limits the chances of extra-base hits, and if Stroman can do that, they have a great chance to come away with a win in the series finale.
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