Welcome to Sunday in Major League Baseball. We’ve made it through the week and have tons of exciting matchups to wrap up the week. I have looked through today’s MLB games and found 3 picks that combine for a +982 payout at FanDuel Sportsbook. Be sure to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games, but for now, let’s get into my MLB mega parlay for Sunday.
Rockies-Braves alternate over 10.5 (+134)
Pirates ML (+138)
Guardians ML (-106)
Parlay odds: +982
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Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves over 10.5 (+134)
Since joining the Rockies and becoming a starter, Chase Anderson has a 3.16 ERA in 6 starts and has limited hitters to a .244 batting average. He’s allowed 3 or fewer runs in all 6 starts, so he’s added a bit of consistency to a Colorado rotation that has struggled to stay healthy. Anderson has become more of a strikeout pitcher in the last few starts too as he’s accumulated 13 punch-outs in his last 2 outings, so he’s adapted to the starting-rotation lifestyle nicely. However, the Braves offense has been crushing the ball in the last few days with 42 runs in their last 5 games, so Anderson should be in for a long day.
Opposing Anderson will be Charlie Morton, who has a 3.60 ERA paired with a 4.64 xERA in 75 innings this season. Uncle Charlie is getting into the twilight of his career as his numbers are creeping towards career highs, but he’s still capable of showing up and dominating an offense on any given day. That was the case in his last outing as he threw 5.2 scoreless innings against the lowly Tigers. However, the Tigers and Rockies are quite different. Colorado should be able to put up more runs than Detroit, and that should be able to push this game total over 10. Don’t overthink it, the Braves offense is too good right now, and the Rockies can score a few themselves.
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Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+138) over Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers’ offense is simply not strong overall. They are among the worst in the league versus southpaw pitching, but they are now having an equal amount of trouble facing right-handers. Milwaukee’s ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days are ranked or set at 20th, 28th, and 76 respectively. They have a wOBA against right-handed sinkers of 21st, sliders of 26th, and right-handed 4-seamers of just slightly below league average. These 3 pitches account for 86.5% of Luis Ortiz’s repertoire. At the end of last season, Ortiz made 4 starts for the Pirates and posted a 3.67 FIP and 9.56 K/9. Through his subsequent seven AAA starts to open this season, he matched that 3.67 FIP. He’s an up-and-coming pitcher with excellent stuff, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him find success against a struggling Brewers lineup.
In this contest, the Pirates’ offense is actually the better choice. The Pirates, although not being a particularly reliable team themselves, rank 12th in ISO, 8th in wOBA, and have a wRC+ of 104 over the past 30 days versus right-handed pitching. Their recent borderline outstanding plate discipline is highlighted by their 10th-highest walk rate and 8th-lowest strikeout rate. That is important for a game against Freddy Peralta, who has had trouble this year getting batters out of their strike zones for chases. His 3.96 pitches per plate appearance and 34th percentile chase rate result in a 43rd percentile BB% and a few early exits from games. If the Pirates can make Peralta work and get deep into the count, he may not last too long, and Pittsburgh can complete an upset.
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Cleveland Guardians ML (-106) over Arizona Diamondbacks
After winning both of their games to start their weekend series against Cleveland, the Arizona Diamondbacks are now 43-28 this season, leading the NL West. The Guardians were 9-5 in their last 14, but are now just 1-4 on their west coast road trip. Although Shane Bieber pitched well through 7 innings last night, they may have left him in too long because he collapsed in the eighth inning. The Guardians will switch from Bieber to Bibee tonight as they pitch to their young right-hander. The 24-year-old is normally an aggressive strike-thrower who tries to avoid giving out free passes by residing in the zone more often than average. His 4-seamer resides up in the zone, and when he can find it where he needs it, it unlocks the rest of his tools. Bibee’s slider and changeup have both been reliable wipeout pitches for him, and his curveball plays exceptionally effectively off the high heat. Arizona is likely to stack 6 left-handed bats against him in this game, so his changeup will be crucial.
Overall, the Arizona offense is highly effective against right-handed pitching, but Cleveland has been right behind in a number of categories since May 30. Since that time, Arizona has a 7% advantage in wRC, while both teams are ranked in the top 7 in wOBA against right-handed pitchers. In his most recent start against the Phillies, Zach Davies wasn’t particularly great, giving up 6 runs (4 earned) in only 3 innings of work while also struggling with 3 walks and 6 hits, including a home run. He performs only in the season’s 31st percentile for xBA and the season’s 23rd percentile for BB%. Expect Cleveland to secure a crucial victory in order to avoid the sweep.
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