Matt Selz
Show Bio
The regular season finale is here. It’s been 25 races leading up Saturday night’s race at Daytona for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The last spot in the playoffs comes down to the chaos of Daytona and who can survive the wrecks. NASCAR wanted this wild card race to be in this spot on the schedule for this reason. No one knows what’s going to happen and everyone has a shot at a miracle. What does that chaos mean for betting though? How do we adjust our betting patterns for Daytona? Does qualifying matter for the Coke Zero Sugar 400? All of that along with winner predictions and prop bets are below.
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Past Results and Track History at Daytona
The first thing that sticks out here is the lack of winners from the front of the grid. Over the last 10 races at Daytona, between the 500 and 400, only four drivers from the top-10 starting spots have won. No one from the first two rows have won though. Three drivers have won from 29th or further back in that same span. That should tell us all we need to know for betting. Anyone can win here from any position. In those last 10 races the other three winners have come from P17, P21, and P21 starting spots. So how do we approach this for betting?
Coke Zero Sugar 400 Betting Strategy
The betting strategy here is relatively straight forward: have a little bit of exposure to a lot of different drivers. We’re not going to go all in on just one or two drivers but rather spread things out. Again, this is because anything can happen here. The other part of the strategy is to bet on drivers with good track histories at plate tracks. That might sound simple and naive for a track where anything can happen, but this is a skill. Drivers who’ve mastered the skill of the plate racing discipline are the ones that consistently finish well — or finish races in general. The drivers that are best at staying on track are the ones that help you cash the most bets.
How to Avoid Chaos At Daytona
You can’t. I know, that’s not a comforting thing to hear but it’s the truth. Even with the strategies above and the best intentions or read of how the race will play out, you can’t. There are a few things we can do to try and miss the crashes though. One is to understand that betting only one or two drivers starting in the top-10 is wise as it’s typical for only one or two of them to finish in the top-10. While outright winner odds are bigger here than normal tracks, betting more props is the better way to have a good day to give you more margin for error. Unfortunately, because sportsbooks got taken for a ride in this race last year, we can’t parlay top-10 bets together any longer at plate races.
NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 Winner Best Bets
Chase Elliott (+1200 at BetMGM)
He needs a win. It’s that simple. The only way the most popular driver in NASCAR makes the playoffs is to get a win. He’s finished in victory lane before in plate races and has run well at Daytona previously too. The trick for him is that he has to race patiently and bide his time to make it to the end of the race and have a chance. The public money will be on this favorite too for what it’s worth.
Brad Keselowki (+1300 at BetMGM)
Keselowski is locked into the playoffs on points at this point but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to get his first win as a team owner with RFK. His ability at this discipline is hard to dispute and the RFK cars have been showing race winning speed down the stretch, just like at Chris Buescher’s run. When we couple speed, manufacturer, plate history, and motivation, it’s hard to look past Keselowski for a shot to win on Saturday night.
Bubba Wallace (+2000 at BetMGM)
Not only does Wallace have a great history of running well at Daytona and Talladega, and recently Atlanta, but he has motivation and help. Wallace is on the cutline to make the playoffs. Assuming there’s no new winner, he’ll likely make it, but why leave it up to someone else rather than put it in your own control? Wallace could win this on his own but he will have Denny Hamlin helping him late in the race, assuming both are there, as Hamlin has stated his goal is to get Wallace into the playoffs. So help, skill, consistency are on his side and that’s enough to make these odds too hard to ignore.
Alex Bowman (+2500 at BetMGM)
Bowman, like his Hendrick teammate above, needs a win to make the playoffs. We’ve seen Hendrick drivers pull a win off in this race before to make the playoffs as William Byron did it in 2021. Bowman is just as capable of doing that with three top-10 finishes in the last eight plate races and a top-five. The trick for Bowman is to not start quite as high as he usually does at Daytona as starting further back is better for his chances of winning on Saturday night.
Daniel Suarez (+3000 at BetMGM)
The first step to winning these races is to consistently be finishing near the front of the pack and that’s what Suarez has started doing. In the last three plate races, Suarez has three-straight top-10s. Step 1 complete. The next step is to be running up front when the checkered flag waves, that could very well happen this weekend. Suarez needs a win to control his own playoff destiny and he should be fast and skilled enough to compete for that win on Saturday night.
Erik Jones (+3500 at BetMGM)
Jones loves these types of races and has a couple of wins at them in his career. The chance for him to land a playoff spot could save his otherwise disappointing season for him and his team. All of that disappoint is set aside this weekend in pursuit of a win which would be his fifth top-10 in the last 10 plate races for him in the 42-car.
Corey Lajoie (+5000 at FanDuel)
Long shots win at Daytona. We’ve seen it with Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric, and Austin Dillon recently. So why not Lajoie? He circles these races on the calendar as his best chances of winning and he’s come tantalizingly close to winning these races a few times. The average finish isn’t great nor are the top-15 finishes — just two in eight races — but the eye test suggests he should be a threat this weekend.
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NASCAR Coke Zero Sugar 400 Prop Best Bets
Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish (+125 at BetRivers)
Aside from his car owner, Denny Hamlin, he’s the best plate racer in the Toyota camp. Among drivers with multiple races at plate tracks in the last 10 trips, Wallace has the second-best average finish — 11.7 — in the field. He’s also finished in the top-10 four times in the last nine plate races which means his success rate matches the implied odds here.
Daniel Suarez Top-10 Finish (+175 at BetRivers)
People forget how good Suarez has gotten at plate tracks in the Next Gen car. As mentioned above, he’s posted three-straight top-10 finishes at plate races. There’s the consistency we’ve been talking about. Suarez also needs as good of a race as he can pull off this week as he tries to make the playoffs coming in below the cutline. That motivation and finish history should have him in contention for a top-10.
Ryan Blaney Top-5 Finish (+245 at BetRivers)
We get it’s been a weird season for Blaney but we can’t deny his successes at plate tracks. He’s posted the most top-fives in the last 10 plate races in the field with five. Blaney’s average finish is 6.8 in that span too which is by far the best average finish in the field. That makes these odds too hard to ignore even with his up-and-down season in 2023.
Chris Buescher Top-5 Finish (+300 at BetRivers)
Buescher is second in the field in terms of number of top-five finishes in the last 10 plate races with four. That’s enough to include him here. That kind of consistency is what we’re looking for, especially at these odds. There’s also something to the fact that he’ll be working with his teammate/owner Keselwoski to try and get him a win and that should have Buescher toward the front of the field late in the race.
BJ McLeod Top-10 Finish (+800 at BetRivers)
Who? Exactly. McLeod is a guy we’re not typically looking at but this isn’t a typical race. McLeod loves this style of racing and has two top-10s in his last eight plate races. That’s a 25% success rate, including in this race a year ago. The implied odds suggest an 11.1% chance of McLeod finishing top-10. So even with long odds there’s value here.
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