Matt Selz
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It’s time again for left and right turns in the NASCAR Cup Series. The Verizon 200 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, or Indy Road for short, is this Sunday at 2:30 pm ET. It’s the third time there’s been a road race at the famed Indianapolis Motor Speed for the Cup Series, with the other 2 being chaotic events. Hopefully the chaos doesn’t show up as much this year. Fingers crossed!
That being said, how are we looking at this race weekend with it being a road course? To what are the other tracks can we compare the Indy road course? What are the betting strategies we’re looking to employ for Sunday? What are our favorite winner predictions and prop bets for the Verizon 200?
All that and more is below.
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What tracks are we comparing to the Indy road course?
A key thing to NASCAR betting is pulling the right data sets. This week, the data set of comparable tracks to Indy road is basically all of the road courses raced on with the Gen 7 car. Within those tracks though, we should be looking at the tracks that have technical parts with long straights mixed in like COTA, previous Indy road races and Sonoma.
What are the best betting strategies for the Verizon 200?
We’re banking on drivers that have good histories at road courses this weekend. That’s the simplest way to explain it. This discipline — making right turns and being fast — requires a specific set of skills and drivers with the best records on road courses are always in contention. This track tends to be a bit more of a wild card road course than others on the schedule, as well.
Do we have to account for chaos at Indy?
In a word, yes! Each of the last 2 years at Indy road there has been a lot of chaos. The first year the curb came off one of the “s” turns and created a massive wreck that involved roughly half the field. The second race here had another big wreck and weather issues. Do we expect the same things this year? Weather shouldn’t be an issue but the wrecks and chaos are sure to be. Ill-timed cautions are going to flip the field a couple of times too. So having a bit of exposure to odd bets could help you survive the chaos.
Winner predictions for the NASCAR Cup Series Verizon 200
All odds listed are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Tyler Reddick +550
Reddick has 3 wins in the last 9 Cup series road races. He’s won at Indy Road as well. While things haven’t been quite as good or consistent this year, he’s still been fast on road courses including a win at COTA. It’s hard to come to a road course and count out Reddick from contention at this point.
Martin Truex Jr. +750 (BetRivers)
Truex found the winning formula at Sonoma earlier this year for his fourth career win on a road course. While he’s not had the best luck at the Indy road course in the past two races here, he’s in far better form coming into this race than he was in those two races previously. He’s been fast enough to start near the front here in past races and should be once again this weekend. Now if only he can avoid the anticipated chaos….
AJ Allmendinger +1600 (Caesars)
It’s the Dinger on a road course and one he’s won at before as well. That’s all that needs to be said. He’s always a threat when right turns are involved and to show that off even more he’s on pole for the Xfinity race on Saturday, too. He needs a win to make the cup playoffs in all likelihood and this weekend and next — at Watkins Glen — are his best chances to lock down that win.
Chris Buescher +2800
He’s coming off back-to-back wins at 2 vastly different tracks and has been a very good road racer in his Cup career. While that’s not translated to wins yet, he does have 8 straight top 10s with a runner-up at Sonoma a year ago. Momentum can be a huge thing in NASCAR and Buescher certainly has that on his side going into a style of race he’s quite strong at.
Austin Cindric +3000 (BetMGM)
Cindric is an Indiana native with a ton of road course experience. He’s posted 6 top-10s in the last 9 Cup Series road races and the 2 times he’s raced Indy road in Xfinity he’s won and finished P5. That’s enough to land him in our long shot spot for the week at his home track. There’s also the fact that Roger Penske, his team owner, owns Indianapolis Motor Speedway — which certainly has to help his case, right?
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Best prop bets for the Indy road course race
Austin Cindric Top-10 Finish +100 (Caesars)
We’re getting even money for Cindric on a road course? Really? His home track no less? To put this into perspective, Cindric and Michael McDowell have basically identical records on the last 9 road courses in terms of average finish, top 5s, top 10s, top 20s, laps led, fastest laps and so on. Yet McDowell is -110 to -130 at the books for this bet. So we have to take the built in value here on a guy with a 67% hit rate in the Gen 7 car on road courses.
Ty Gibbs Top-10 Finish +185 (BetRivers)
In two of the last 3 road races (all this year), Gibbs has finished P9 while starting P17 and P12, respectively, in those races. Let’s not forget he won on the Daytona Road Course in his first Xfinity race, as well, so he’s not a stronger to this territory. He’s been very good at getting the most out of his car and keeping it clean in his rookie year in Cup and that will continue this weekend in Indy as he plods along to another top-10 finish and solidify his spot on the bubble in the playoffs.
Shane Van Gisbergen Top-5 Finish +170 (BetMGM)
Was it just beginner’s luck or full skill that saw him win in Chicago? I’m going with a bit of both as other drivers didn’t know his tactics or moves or style yet. He’s not coming in unknown this time and the car will be just as good. That makes me think he’ll get back toward the front of the pack on Sunday at Indy but may not double up on wins. So we’ll take these odds for him to show up strongly again and be a threat toward the front of the field.
Chase Elliott Top-5 Finish +150 (Caesars)
While he’s not been in winning form at these tracks recently, he is still leading the field in top-5 finishes with 5. That’s 5 in 8 races having missed COTA earlier this year. He’ll need a win to make the playoffs but at this point he wants a clean weekend before his favorite track — Watkins Glen — next weekend. Getting big plus odds for this is a serious bonus at this point.
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