It was a historic season in the NL East in 2022. Two teams finished with over 100 wins, and another team snuck into the Wild Card that ended up reaching the World Series. The New York Mets were one of the most dominant teams after Opening Day, and they finished the season with 101 wins and still didn’t win the division. They led the NL East for 175 days in 2022, but when it came time to shut down the Braves’ late-season surge, New York failed to secure the division title. Atlanta won their 5th consecutive NL East title as they cemented their dynasty within the division.
While the Mets and Braves won over 100 games, the Philadelphia Phillies earned a Wild Card spot and made the most of the opportunity. They beat the Cardinals, Braves and Padres en route to a World Series appearance. As for the Marlins and Nationals in 2022, they tried. With the 2023 season looming, let’s dive into my NL East preview and my best bet to make.
You can also check out our 2023 MLB season preview
NL East Division Winner Odds
The Braves opened as the favorite to win the NL East for the 6th consecutive year. With a young lineup and a dangerous rotation, it’s no surprise to see Atlanta listed as the team to beat in the division. Not far behind the Braves are the Mets, who made a handful of moves in the offseason to transform their squad into a superteam. A rotation that starts with Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer might be the best 1-2 punch in baseball. And the reigning National League Champions, the Phillies, are expected to once again follow in Atlanta and New York’s footsteps. Here are the odds to win the NL East, courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Atlanta Braves +110
New York Mets +175
Philadelphia Phillies +370
Miami Marlins +2200
Washington Nationals +25000
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NL East Division Team-by-Team Guide
Atlanta Braves (+110)
The Braves will be looking to continue their NL East dynasty with another title in 2023. It was a disappointing end to their 2022 season as they fell short of their ultimate goal, but there were a lot of positives to take away. Michael Harris II and Spencer Strider were incredible in their first seasons and were competing for the National League Rookie of the Year award which was ultimately won by Harris. Harris is a speedy outfielder that can hit for power and average, and if the Braves will be successful in 2023, he should play a large role in it. I expect Harris to slide into the 5th spot in the order, behind a monster top of the lineup that is made of Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Sean Murphy.
There is a strong chance that Atlanta will have the youngest lineup of any team in the league, but what they lack in experience, they make up for in talent. That also goes for their starting rotation, as sophomore superstar Spencer Strider was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2022. Along with Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright, the Braves are one of the most balanced teams in baseball. I expect the Braves’ offense to be top 5 in scoring in 2023 and once again be in a dogfight for the NL East crown.
New York Mets (+175)
When considering the biggest winner of the offseason, the Mets have to be a top contender. They landed reigning AL Cy Young Justin Verlander and Japanese sensation Kodai Senga to join Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco in the Mets rotation. This could be one of the top rotations in baseball this season if everyone stays healthy, but that’s my biggest worry.
Verlander just turned 40, Scherzer is 38 and Senga will be adjusting to life in Major League Baseball. If just one of those starters is sidelined for several weeks, their starting rotation would have a huge hole. Especially since newly acquired Jose Quintana is already out for the next few months, which means New York can’t afford too many more injuries to their rotation. On offense, the Mets signed Carlos Correa… for about 3 days. But what a middle infield that could have been with Francisco Lindor!
Otherwise, it was a pretty quiet offseason. They did sign Omar Narvaez to be their new backstop, but that’s about it. New York is sticking with their guys from the 2022 season, and it’s hard to blame them since they have Lindor, Starling Marte, Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Mark Canha. And finally, the worst news of all, Edwin Diaz. The superstar closer suffered a tear of the patellar tendon in the World Baseball Classic and is out for the 2023 season. It’s a huge loss for New York, and the World Baseball Classic had some angry Mets fans. I expect the Mets to fight with the Braves for the NL East title, but in the end fall short of 1st place.
Don’t forget to check out my AL East preview
Philadelphia Phillies (+370)
Looking at Philadelphia’s odds, you might not think they were just in the World Series. At DraftKings Sportsbook, they have the 8th-best odds to win it all, the 6th-best odds to win the National League and the 3rd-best odds to win their division. And while they may seem like an appealing underdog choice, they are priced the way they are for a reason. Bryce Harper is out for at least the first 2 months as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but I don’t expect Harper back until around the all-star break. Philadelphia also lost Zach Eflin in free agency, but he was replaced with Taijuan Walker, so that balances out nicely.
But the biggest news from the Phillies’ offseason was signing shortstop Trea Turner to an 11-year, $300 million contract. Turner will make an immediate impact in the order that will have Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos right behind him. Philadelphia’s offense has high expectations, and I’ll be very curious to see how they do without Harper.
An underrated aspect that the Phillies improved on this offseason was their bullpen, which was one of the worst arm barns in the 2022 regular season. They added Matt Strahm, Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto to join Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado, so Philadelphia should have one of the top bullpens in the entire National League in 2023. I don’t love their chances of winning the NL East, but I think Philadelphia can once again sneak into the playoffs.
Miami Marlins (+2200)
For a team that was 32 games out of 1st place in 2022, the Marlins sure did make a lot of moves this offseason. They acquired American League batting champ Luis Arraez, Astros fan-favorite Yuli Gurriel, White Sox veteran Johnny Cueto and infielder Jean Segura in hopes of finishing with a winning record for just the 2nd time since they became the Miami Marlins.
It’s not like the Marlins are starting from scratch either, since they have a solid core of stars that they need to build around. Sandy Alcantara is the face of the franchise, and the ace won the NL Cy Young Award in 2022. He is finally getting the recognition that he deserves as one of the best pitchers in the game. Miami also has Jazz Chisholm Jr., who managed to make the cover of MLB The Show 23 by doing creative home run trots. Chisholm has agreed to move to center field so that Arraez can play second base, so it will be interesting to see how the young star adapts to the lonely life in center field.
A forgotten member of the Marlins is Jorge Soler, who hit the mammoth home run for the Braves in the 2021 World Series and then dipped off the face of the earth for a year. Soler managed to play only 72 games last season due to injuries, but if the slugger can get back to his 2021 self, the Marlins have a decent lineup. They also have a pretty solid starting rotation of Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and Cueto, so Miami could surprise some teams this year.
Don’t forget to check out my AL Central preview
Washington Nationals (+25000)
The Oakland Athletics were the laughingstock of the 2022 season, but it looks like the Nationals will bail them out in 2023. Washington’s win total is set at 59.5 wins, meaning oddsmakers expect the Nats to lose over 100 games this year. The Nationals decided to rebuild when they traded away Juan Soto and Josh Bell at the trade deadline last year, so it could be a few years before we see Washington out of the basement in the NL East.
It’s hard to imagine it was just a few years ago that the Nationals had Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, as that is all but a memory now. For the 2023 season, the Nationals will look for their prospects to flourish in their playing time opportunities. Joey Meneses, CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz and Victor Robles all showed potential last season and will have a full year to grow into the future of the organization.
However, the biggest problem that Washington faces is not a prospect, but a veteran. Patrick Corbin, also known as the biggest bust in Nationals history, had a horrendous 2022 season. He’s been terrible since they acquired him in 2019, and Washington will need him to get back to being a mediocre pitcher if he wants to keep his job. The Nationals’ ceiling this season is pretty close to their floor.
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NL East Best Bet: Atlanta Braves to win NL East (+110)
It will be a 2-team race for 1st place in the NL East, but one team is better suited for the marathon. Atlanta has one of the most balanced teams in baseball this year, with a mix of veterans and youth in the lineup and rotation. They were the more consistent team in the NL East last year and have been known to have a second-half surge that propels them to a postseason run. That happened in 2021 when they won the World Series and last season, so even if the Mets jump out to a lead in the division, it won’t worry me.
New York has a lot of veteran arms in their rotation, and I’m concerned that they won’t make it 6 months without an injury or two. Atlanta has won the NL East for the last 5 straight years, and their team looks as dominant as ever, so I’m backing Atlanta to continue their dynasty in the NL East for another year.
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