Filip Tomic
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To celebrate MLK Day the NBA has provided a slate of 9 games this Monday, with 4 of those being televised nationally. For this Same Game Parlay bet I’m focusing on the Eastern Conference clash between the Heat and Hawks. Tip-off is at 3:30 pm ET on TNT and you can find my bet below.
We will have picks on the side and total for all of the games in our NBA predictions, so don’t forget to check those out. Let’s dive in!
Miami Heat -1.5 point spread (-108)
Bam Adebayo to score 25+ points (+175)
De’Andre Hunter 2+ made threes (-130)
Same Game Parlay odds: +695
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Miami Heat -1.5 point spread (-108)
With 6 wins in 8 games in 2023, the Heat are playing one of their best stretches of basketball this season. Their losses were close ones against the Lakers and Nets, so nobody has been able to outplay this team significantly over the past few weeks. They’ve also enjoyed 6 wins in the last 7 meetings against the Hawks, covering the spread in 5 of those games. Miami’s road form in particular has been stellar at 7-2 SU over the last 9 outings. They get Tyler Herro back from injury which should be another boost from 3-point land. The Hawks have had 3 wins in 4 games, but they have one thing that’s concerning and that is the absence of Clint Capela, which leaves their paint wide open for teams to expose. With Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler attacking the paint relentlessly I just can’t see how the defensively-limited Hawks will cope. Give me the Heat to steal one on the road.
Bam Adebayo to score 25+ points (+175)
The recipe for Miami’s success in games against the Hawks lately has been to just put the ball into the hands of Bam Adebayo and move out of the way. That worked almost to perfection in the first meeting this season when he dropped 32 points on a very efficient 13-for-20 shooting from the field. Capela didn’t play in that game for Atlanta, which is the case in tonight’s game as well, so we can expect the paint to be exposed once again. The Hawks’ struggles in that area are well documented. They rank only 26th in opponent points in the paint, allowing 53.4 per game. With Butler and others focused on slowing down Trae Young, Adebayo will have to lead the charge on offense. He has been very comfortable in that role, averaging 23.7 points per game over his last 9 outings, and he just had back-to-back 20-point performances against the Milwaukee Bucks playing in the low 30s in minutes.
Also check out our Boston Celtics vs Charlotte Hornets Same Game Parlay at +605 odds!
De’Andre Hunter 2+ made threes (-130)
If the Heat manage to slow down Young, which is very reasonable to assume as he’s shooting just 25% from the field and 12% from three against them this season, then other players will have to step up. De’Andre Hunter is the ideal candidate to bet on as he’s been draining threes for fun lately, shooting at 44.7% from downtown over his last 7 outings. That’s even better in the 2 games against Miami this season as he’s knocked down exactly half of his threes. In January he’s made a pair of threes in 5 of the 7 games he has played, and in his last 2 outings he’s scored 9 of them against Toronto and Indiana. Miami is surprisingly one of the worst perimeter defenses in the NBA. Teams are scoring 16.7 threes per game against them in the last 3 games. With his 3-point percentage going up every month since November, I believe Hunter will have a good game.
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