Andrew Ortenberg
NBA
Show Bio
The NBA playoffs are officially in full swing, and it’s been hard to complain about the action we’ve seen so far. There have been plenty of thrills, and we’ve got another great slate of three games to break down on Friday. It’s a lot to unpack, and there are a plethora of wagers to make. We’ve got tons of great content for the playoffs, including same game parlays, mega parlays, and picks on the side and total for every single matchup.
But right now we’re going to talk about one of my favorite props, first-basket bets. Let’s dive into my favorite such plays for Wednesday, starting with Trae Young.
Knicks at Hawks – Trae Young +550
Nets at Celtics – Kevin Durant +600
Clippers at Mavericks – Marcus Morris +900
Let’s break ’em all down one by one:
Knicks at Hawks – Trae Young +550
We had Trae Young at +600 for Game 2 on Wednesday, and he came through and cashed for us. I don’t see any reason not to go back to the well in Game 3. Clint Capela and Nerlens Noel have now competed for four opening jump-balls this season, and Capela has won three of them. Young has been by far the most consistent offensive player in this series, and his usage rate is easily the highest on the team. He’s scored at least 30 points in each of his first two games and is shooting efficiently.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Nets at Celtics – Kevin Durant +600
This one doesn’t make much sense to me. Kevin Durant was +550 to score the first basket in the opening game of this series. Since then, he’s won each of the first two tip-offs for the Nets. Yet for some reason, his odds have increased to +600. He seems to have a clear advantage with these jump balls, yet oddsmakers are acting like the Celtics are favorites to start with the ball. That’s because Jayson Tatum is at +500 and Kemba Walker is at +600. Durant took 25 shots (along with 12 free throws) in Game 1, which was five more than any other player on either team. He shot 8/12 in Game 2, and only took so few shots as he played less than 30 minutes in the blowout.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics
Clippers at Mavericks – Marcus Morris +900
To get our best odds of this slate, I like Marcus Morris a lot at +900. Sure the Mavericks have won the tip in the first two games of this series, but Ivica Zubac and the Clippers won the tip in all three of their regular-season meetings. Morris might not take as many shots as Kawhi Leonard or Paul George overall, but they always seem to draw a play up for him early. These teams’ last two meetings in the regular season in March both opened the same way. Zubac won the tip over Kristaps Porzingis, Morris gained possession, and then Morris made the first basket of the game. Even though the Mavs won the tip, Morris also took the Clippers’ first shot in the Game 2 loss. He’s been cold in this series, so I think Ty Lue will make getting him going early a priority in this pivotal Game 3.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Parlay odds: +45400
Just for fun I’ll be sprinkling a buck or two on a parlay of all three of these. It’ll pay out at almost 500/1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s the playoffs, why not celebrate by going for the jackpot?
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