NBA Timberwolves vs Mavericks Prediction & Same Game Parlay picks: Nobody can stop Doncic at +576 odds

Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) reacts after scoring during the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings at American Airlines Center.
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Filip Tomic


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Long-time NBA fan, following the game closely for 21 years now. Joined the Pickswise writing staff for the 2020-21 season and have given out winning picks since. Hopefully we can make some money together! Oh, and I firmly believe Lebron James is not one of the two best basketball players of all time. Yeah, I said it. For Filip Tomic media enquiries, please email
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The Boston Celtics went 3-0 up in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Indiana Pacers last night, and the Dallas Mavericks are hoping to do the same on Sunday when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 3 of the WCF. Tipoff is at 8:00 pm ET on TNT and I have prepared a Same Game Parlay, which is available below.

Also visit our NBA picks page for picks on sides and totals.

Let’s head into my SGP bet now!


Luka Doncic Over 29.5 points (-115)

Naz Reid Over 1.5 made threes (-146)

Mike Conley to record 2+ steals (+160)

Same Game Parlay odds: +576

Luka Doncic Over 29.5 points (-115)

Some people haven’t realized it yet, but we are in midst of the Luka Doncic run right now. The MVP finalist is just 2 wins away from his first-ever NBA Finals berth and he has taken it upon himself to carry his team to the promised land. It has been all Doncic in the first 2 games of this series; he has cleared this line with 33 points in Game 1 and 32 in Game 2, including the game-winning 3-pointer with seconds left in the 4th quarter. Missing just 1 free-throw in 2 conference finals games tells us that Doncic is fully locked in and looking to get this series over with as soon as possible. As good as this Timberwolves’ defense has been, I just can’t see what adjustment they make to stop Doncic. We saw what happened when Rudy Gobert tried switching onto him at the end of Game 2, I have Doncic scoring at least 30 points for the 4th game in his last 5 outings.

Naz Reid Over 1.5 made threes (-146)

The Mavericks simply have no solution for Naz Reid and he has been taking advantage of that in every single meeting. After averaging 15.8 points per game against them during the regular season, he has now upped that to 19 per game in this series with performances of 15 and 23 points. Obviously maintaining that production on the road will be tough, but I still think he will have a major impact on Sunday’s showdown. Game 3 is basically a do-or-die situation for Minnesota, because no team in NBA history has come back down from a 3-0 deficit in the playoffs. Only once in 6 meetings with the Mavs this season has Reid failed to drain 2 threes, so I think this bet flies in with ease.

Mike Conley to record 2+ steals (+160)

If the general doesn’t panic, the troops don’t panic. The Timberwolves are in dire need of veteran leadership in Game 3 and who else they can turn to than Mike Conley? The 36-year-old point guard is among the best in the NBA when it comes to stealing the ball from the opponent. He is averaging 1.2 thefts per game this postseason, clearing this line twice over his last 3 — so we are getting quite decent odds on this bet. After allowing opponents 7.3 steals per game during the regular season, over their last 3 outings the Mavs have let that number go up to 8.3; they haven’t exactly been elite at taking care of the basketball. If Conley focuses on making life difficult for Kyrie Irving on the defensive end, that should also free up Anthony Edwards to do his thing on offense. It is a win-win situation for Minnesota.

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