Ricky Dimon
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It all comes down to this: the Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. the Baylor Bears for the 2020-21 national title in college basketball. Before the NCAA Tournament began we asked if anyone could stop either Gonzaga or Baylor, and the answer to that turned out to be no.
Gonzaga and Baylor have been the two favorites for the championship this whole season, and so far in the Big Dance they have lived up to the hype. The chaos that is March Madness got the best of other top teams as early as the opening round, but the two best teams in the business have proven the worth.
Only one, of course, will have its shining moment on Monday night in Indianapolis. Let’s take a look at what the odds suggest that champion will be and how some of those odds have changed both recently and over the past month.
Line movements
Move for the under
Gonzaga-Baylor 160 to 159.5
Gonzaga opened as a -4.5 favorite and with the public conflicted on that number, it has not moved. Per DraftKings, 59 percent of the wagers are picking the Zags against the spread but only 46 percent of the money is going in that same direction. For those counting, that means Baylor +4.5 is inspiring 41 percent of the bets and 54 percent of the handle.
Only the total has moved, and even that is to a miniscule extent. It opened at 160 and has since dipped to 159.5. There is unlikely to be any more shifting, because the money is no longer going on clear-cut way or the other. The over is drawing 59 percent of the bets, but 61 percent of the money is on the under. This perhaps can be explained by the idea that recreational bettors are once again flocking to the over but not doing to with a ton of money. Sharps and high-rollers are probably putting a more significant stake on the under.
Where are we leaning when it comes to both the spread and the game totals? Well, check out our Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Baylor Bears preview and picks.
Futures movements
Gonzaga went into the NCAA Tournament as a +205 favorite to win it all and at -230 to reach the Final Four. The Zags had no trouble advancing to the national semifinals as their titles odds continued to shrink with each passing round. After they punched their ticket to the Final Four, the Bulldogs were -250. For the first time, their odds finally decreased following Saturday’s scare against UCLA. Gonzaga survived 93-90 in overtime after an instant classic that captivated the entire sports world.
Gonzaga’s tough test combined with Baylor’s domination of Houston sent the Zags from -250 to -120. Meanwhile, the Bears went into the semis at +250 to cut down the nets and they are now +165. When the Big Dance began, head coach Scott Drew’s squad was +500 to win the title and -134 to reach the Final Four out of the South Region.
Pickswise is the home of March Madness Predictions. Check out all of our March Madness Picks, including daily March Madness Parlays throughout the NCAA Tournament.
