NFL Week 1 best bets and predictions from 4 of Pickswise's best experts

Arizona Cardinals tight end Zach Ertz (86) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Houston Texans in the second half at State Farm Stadium.

Andrew Wilsher

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Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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Andrew Ortenberg: Falcons -3.5 over Panthers (-110)

The first Sunday of the NFL season is here at last, and we’ve got an interesting NFC South matchup as the Atlanta Falcons get ready to host the Carolina Panthers. Both teams are entering new eras with young quarterbacks at the helm, and there should be some growing pains for both sides. I think the pains will be a lot more pronounced for Carolina early on, so I am laying the points with the Falcons. For starters, Panthers quarterback Bryce Young will be taking the first snaps of his pro career on the road. Atlanta’s Desmond Ridder at least got in a few starts toward the end of last season, and has now had two full NFL offseasons to adjust.

Carolina also has a brand new coaching staff, while Atlanta has a lot more continuity all round. The Falcons have quietly assembled a lot of intriguing young talent on both sides of the ball, and pass catchers Kyle Pitts and Drake London should each take big leaps in 2023. Atlanta also made some nice under-the-radar signings on defense, bringing in Calais Campbell, David Onyemata and Jessie Bates. Carolina is still very much in the early stages of a rebuild, while the Falcons are about ready to come out of theirs. Arthur Smith is one of my favorite coaches in the league, and he very nearly managed to guide Atlanta to a division title last year despite getting mostly horrendous QB play from Marcus Mariota. Don’t sleep on the Falcons in 2023.

Be sure to check out our full Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons predictions

LearLocks: Saints -3 over Titans (-115)

This Saints team has gone over some changes this offseason, especially at quarterback with Derek Carr now under center. I honestly expect Carr to play with plenty of fire in his belly and a point to prove this season. In an ailing division like the NFC South, this is a huge opportunity for him to lead a team into the playoffs and I expect that to get off to a great start with a commanding win over the Titans. Tennessee is seriously struggling for direction right now, and it’s mind-boggling to me that a team with 2 bright young quarterbacks is still opting to go with Ryan Tannerhill as the signal-caller. On top of that, their offensive line hasn’t been improved at all despite being their weakest position last season, and we should see this Saints pass-rush feast all afternoon long as a result. New Orleans’ pass-rush ranked in the top 5 in the NFL and behind their home crowd they should be able to cause Tannehill all kinds of problems.

With homefield advantage I’m surprised that the Saints are only favorites by a field goal and fully believe that they’re capable of winning by a touchdown. I expect the Saints’ offense to flourish with Carr and a now-healthy Michael Thomas at wideout, and have a feeling that this team will surprise people this year. I’m taking the Saints to win and cover the spread with confidence.

Be sure to check out our full Tennessee Titans vs New Orleans Saints predictions

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The Betting Queen: Dolphins vs Chargers Over 50.5 (-110)

This matchup in Los Angeles has the potential to be a shootout. With two high-powered offenses who can score on any play from anywhere on the field, I’m taking the over. As mentioned in the spread writeup, Tua Tagovailoa has one of the best receiving corps in the NFL with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. As we saw in last season’s wild-card game against the Jaguars, Los Angeles’ defense always has potential to struggle and few teams are better poised to take advantage of any slips than the Dolphins.

However, the Chargers have plenty of playmakers of their own in Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is one of the most dangerous running backs in the NFL as he poses a dual-threat, and it’s difficult to see Miami’s defense stopping all the ways that LA can damage them. Expect plenty of fireworks in this one as both offenses start red-hot. I’m taking the over with confidence.

Be sure to check out our full Miami Dolphins vs LA Chargers predictions

Andrew Wilsher: Cardinals +7 over Commanders (-110)

The Cardinals head to the nation’s capital to take on the Commanders with both teams expected to struggle this season, and while things look bleaker for Arizona at this stage, there looks to be value in taking the road team as a 7-point underdog. This Cardinals team has been the subject of a pile-on this summer and isn’t favored to win a single game this season, but when public perception is that low it can sometimes be exaggerated. Josh Dobbs looks set to start the game at quarterback, and although his game experience is minimal despite being in the league for 6 years, he is certainly serviceable. Dobbs started 2 games for the Titans at the end of last season and was by no means awful — he was on the verge of leading Tennessee to victory over Jacksonville before he was sacked and fumbled the ball which led to a touchdown. Dobbs will at least have some decent weapons at his disposal, most notably tight end Zach Ertz, while receivers Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore are capable of lighting it up. Running back James Conner, meanwhile, has 22 touchdowns over the past two seasons and should be a threat out of the backfield.

But ultimately this play is based more around the fact that the Commanders shouldn’t be touchdown favorites against anybody right now. Washington won just 1 of its last 5 games of the 2022 season — a meaningless Week 18 game against the Cowboys — and it is yet to be seen just how good Sam Howell will be under center. The jury’s still out, but based on what I’ve seen I don’t expect him to be the future of Washington football. Despite having a strong backfield tandem of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, putting points on the board can be an issue for the Commanders and that is somewhat reflected in this low total of just 38 points. Overall, I’m expecting a very low-scoring game, and that therefore gives more value to Arizona getting the 7-point start, especially since a touchdown win for the Commanders would still get us a push on this bet. I’m confidently backing the Cardinals +7, and wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled the upset win.

Be sure to check out our full Arizona Cardinals vs Washington Commanders predictions

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