Andrew Ortenberg
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We’re back for more. After cashing our Week 13 NFL mega money line parlay at 74/1 odds, why not make it two weeks in a row? There’s a lot to like about this Week 14 NFL card, and while you’ll of course have your regular compliment of wagers, it’s also a lot of fun to sprinkle a few bucks on a big parlay with a huge payout. While you can get our thoughts on the side and total for every Week 14 NFL game, here we’ll be picking a handful of money line spots that each present value, with a few underdogs mixed in. This week we’ve got a six-teamer for you, with a payout north of 80/1.
Houston Texans -120
Kansas City Chiefs -340
Indianapolis Colts -148
Detroit Lions +340
Washington Football Team +152
Pittsburgh Steelers +106
Parlay odds: +8371
I think each of these plays has standalone value, and the one heavy favorite is pretty much a lock. Let’s break down each play one by one.
Houston Texans to beat Chicago Bears (-120)
The Bears continue to sink to new lows, most recently blowing a late double-digit lead to Detroit. The team has clearly lost all confidence in head coach Matt Nagy, and the defense has already shown signs of wearing down. Over their last two games they’ve given up 75 points, and the defense has obviously grown tired of carrying the entire team. The Texans on the other hand are playing their best football right now, going 3-2 in their last five games. The two losses in that span were a three-point defeat on the road against the Browns, and a loss to the Colts last week where they likely would’ve won had Deshaun Watson not fumbled the snap on the two-yard line with just over a minute left to play.
Kansas City Chiefs to beat Miami Dolphins (-340)
I don’t see any way the Chiefs lose this game. Miami’s offense has quietly been terrible recently, failing to score more than 20 points in three straight games. Needless to say, that isn’t going to cut it against Kansas City. The Dolphins have been a nice story, but their last three wins were against the Bengals, Jets, and Chargers, three of the worst teams in the league. Tua Tagovailoa is averaging only 6.6 yards per attempt, and their ground game averages just 3.7 yards per carry. The defense has made strides, but nobody can slow down Patrick Mahomes entirely, and Miami’s offense won’t be able to keep up.
Indianapolis Colts to beat Las Vegas Raiders (-148)
Now is the perfect time to fade the Raiders off their last-second miracle comeback over the Jets. I often like to fade teams coming off emotional wins like that, just like I did with the Cardinals the week after their walk-off Hail Mary. Vegas’s last three wins are against the Jets, Broncos, and Chargers, so they’ve also just been beating up on the weaker teams. They were a play away from losing two of those games as well. The Colts are solid on both sides of the ball, and I don’t see Derek Carr doing much against this stingy Indy defense.
Philip Rivers Ladies And Gentleman 😂 pic.twitter.com/Dnfx70psTS
— Pickswise (@Pickswise) October 2, 2020
Detroit Lions to beat Green Bay Packers (+340)
This is the big underdog we’re throwing in to get us a huge odds boost. I don’t know if Detroit will for sure win this game, but their chances are certainly better than this +340 line would indicate. It was clear to anyone with a pulse that the Lions hated playing for Matt Patricia, and the whole locker room is glad he’s gone. They got a huge momentum boost with their comeback over the Bears last week, and the team seems to love interim coach Darrell Bevell. Remember how the Falcons caught fire immediately after firing Dan Quinn? I think we could see something similar with the Lions down the stretch. I’m very skeptical of this Green Bay defense, and they’ve only beaten one team with a winning record all season.
Washington Football Team to beat San Francisco 49ers (+152)
Washington cashed our parlay for us last week by beating the Steelers as huge underdogs, so why not go back to the well? Everyone continues to underestimate this Washington team, and they quietly have one of the best defenses in the league. They’re playing with a ton of juice, while I think San Francisco will be demoralized following their loss to the Bills last week in what was essentially their Super Bowl. This Washington defensive line is going to make life miserable for Nick Mullens, and force him into several bad decisions.
Pittsburgh Steelers to beat Buffalo Bills (+106)
Speaking of the Steelers, I expect them to bounce back here. They obviously weren’t as good as their 11-0 record suggested, but now everybody has way overreacted the other way and overcompensated. If anything that loss to Washington was a good thing for this spot, as they’ll now come out angry and extra motivated. Against a soft Buffalo run defense that ranks 28th with 4.7 yards per carry allowed, Pittsburgh should finally be able to get their struggling ground game going. Josh Allen won’t look nearly as calm with the Steelers’ ferocious pass-rush bearing down on him.
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