Nuggets vs Thunder Parlay Picks: Expert NBA Same Game Parlay at +445 odds

Filip Tomic

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Long-time NBA fan, following the game closely for 21 years now. Joined the Pickswise writing staff for the 2020-21 season and have given out winning picks since. Hopefully we can make some money together! Oh, and I firmly believe Lebron James is not one of the two best basketball players of all time. Yeah, I said it. For Filip Tomic media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

Denver Nuggets +7.5 (-112)

Christian Braun 2+ made threes (+178)

Jaylin Williams 6+ rebounds (-400)

Same Game Parlay odds: +445

Denver Nuggets +7.5 (-112)

Aaron Gordon coming back means that the Nuggets are finally back to full strength — that is if Jamal Murray is able to play following his ankle twist in the loss to the Knicks. Denver got blown out by 39 points, but we can give them some leeway considering it was a 2nd night of a back-to-back scenario. Monday’s meetings with the Thunder will be their third this season, and they are yet to win against SGA and company — with the latest meeting ending in a 6-point road defeat in OT. The defending champs have similar issues, but — unlike the Nuggets — it hasn’t affected their ability to win games at all. They enter Monday’s affair on a 5-game winning streak. The defense has really excelled in their last 4 games, holding opponents to just 97,100, 108 and 87 points.

From a bettors’ perspective, backing the Thunder hasn’t been all that joyful; they have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games overall, while at home they’re just 15-18 ATS in 33 games so far. There’s pressure on both teams given their situations in the standings, but I’d argue there’s slightly more on the Nuggets, who just fell to 6th after the Lakers won on Sunday. Gordon coming back is a plus, and the team will only get better once he returns to his pre-injury form. I feel way more comfortable backing the Nuggets plus the extra points.

Christian Braun 2+ made threes (+178)

Is it just me, or does Christian Braun play well every time these 2 teams meet? Not only is he averaging 18 points per game over the last 5 meetings, but he also went off in the second H2H meeting, scoring 23 points and grabbing 8 rebounds. That just showed us how important he is to the success of the Nuggets, even as only the fourth or fifth scoring option. It’s been a rough season in terms of injuries for him, but he’s slowly getting back into playing shape – the last 10 games have seen him average almost 13 points per game while connecting on 52% of shots from the field and 31% from 3. His opportunity on Monday lies in the fact that OKC allows the 4th most threes in the NBA and the 6th most to opposing shooting guards. He, too, should benefit from Aaron Gordon’s return as the opposing defenses now have another player to turn their attention to, which gives Braun the opportunity to go slightly under the radar. The Thunder rank 22nd in opponent 3-point percentage this season, so we can only hope he uses that to his advantage.

Jaylin Williams 6+ rebounds (-400)

To wrap up the Same Game Parlay bet, I have Jaylin Williams cleaning the glass for the defending champs. He has done a fabulous job at doing so over his last 10 games, averaging 7.3 rebounds a night. The last 2 of 3 games have seen him go double-digits in that department, and the same could be required from him in case Chet Holmgren isn’t able to go here as he battles an illness ahead of tipoff. Williams has shown a lot of improvement in this area of play — especially on the defensive side, where he has upped his rebounding from 4.6 to 4.9 per game compared to last year. In 2 H2H meetings this season, he is averaging 5 rebounds per game. With the Nuggets ranking seventh rebounds allowed to opposing PFs, there’s no doubt in my mind he can get 6 of them today. He has recorded at least 5 in 7 games straight and has cleared this line in 4 of those games.