Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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I had high hopes this season for the primetime games being more entertaining than what we got last season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case. And things aren’t looking up for Week 5, either. The winless Chicago Bears travel to DC to take on the Washington Commanders (-6.5) and this is a game that makes you grateful for legalized gambling. The Bears blew a 21-point lead last Sunday against the winless Denver Broncos to take a stranglehold on the title of worst team in the league and I can’t see that improving on Thursday.
Let’s look at a few player props.
Sam Howell, QB, WAS, Under 236.5 passing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
I’m fading a QB playing against the Bears defense and I will get my flowers if this hits. The explanation for this line is that Howell coming off a 290-yard passing game against the Philadelphia Eagles and he has also had a 299-yard performance against the Broncos. The thing both of those games have in common is that they each combined for 65+ points between the 2 teams involved. In no way do I see Thursday night as a fireworks shootout between the Commanders and the Bears. Instead, let’s focus on some concrete numbers for Howell: he averages 6.04 adjust yards gained per pass attempt and 7.11 yards gained per pass attempt. In 5 career starts he has thrown more than 32 passes just twice (agains the Eagles and Broncos this year). In reality, he should settle around ~30 attempts and his passing line projects between 210 and 220 yards. This line is simply too high despite playing the lowly Bears. 1U.
Get our full Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders predictions for TNF
Khalil Herbert, RB, CHI, Over 44.5 rushing yards (-110)
Line available at Bet365 at time of publishing.
The Commanders rank in the bottom 12 in these 3 defensive rushing stats: opp rushing yards per game, opp rushing first downs per game and opp rush yards per attempt. They are also 17th in opp rush attempts per game. Herbert is coming off his best game of the season and LG Teven Jenkins is set to return this week, which should give a big boost to the run game. Herbert’s career average is 5.0 ypc and 4.8 on the season. Realistically he needs 10 carries to hit this total, which he has done in 7 of 9 career games in which he plays more than 50% of the snaps. This game is probably going to be closer than the 6.5-point spread indicates and that equates to an established run game. 1U.
Be sure to check the rest of our NFL Week 5 Picks and Predictions in the lead-up to Sunday’s slate.
