Ricky Dimon
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The PGA Tour is in the middle of a jam-packed schedule that already saw Tiger Woods return at last week’s Memorial Tournament. It also includes the World Golf Championship-FedEx St. Jude Invitational at the beginning of August and the PGA Championship from Aug. 6-9.
This week is somewhat of a calm in the middle of the storm, as the 3M Open does not boast quite as strong of a field as those other events. That is not to say it is weak by any means. Dustin Johnson is a +1000 favorite and he is joined on the list by Tony Finau (+1200), Brooks Koepka (+1400), Tommy Fleetwood (+1600), and other stars such as defending champion Matthew Wolff (+2500) and two-time Masters winner Bubba Watson (+3300).
Let’s take a look at the best bets heading into first-round action on Thursday. And be sure to check out our outright winner pick on the PGA Tour picks page.
Tony Finau to beat Tommy Fleetwood (-110)
Our head-to-head pick at the Memorial was Xander Schauffele over Woods and that cashed as Schauffele maintained his fine form and Woods endured a roller-coaster ride in his comeback. Speaking of comebacks, Fleetwood has been absent since the coronavirus pandemic halted the PGA Tour in early March. The Englishman has been at home, opting to stay away from the United States until now—when he finally begins his PGA Championship preparation. Finau, on the other hand, is coming off an eighth-place performance at the Memorial and he finished a solid T23 at the inaugural 3M Open in 2019.
Matthew Wolff to win his first-round pairing (+120)
Nobody was better at last year’s 3M Open than Wolff, who captured the first PGA Tour title of his promising career. The 21-year-old American recorded a total score of 21-under par, beating two of the current best players in the sport—Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa—by one stroke. Wolff should be feeling good about his game as he prepares for a title defense, as his July results include a runner-up showing at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a T22 at the Memorial. He is paired with Branden Grace and Max Homa for the first two rounds. Both Grace and Homa have missed three consecutive cuts, so Wolff should have no trouble showing them the way around this course on Thursday.
Sepp Straka to finish in the top 20 (+275)
Getting Straka at +275 to place in the top 20 is solid value based on his current form. The 27-year-old Austrian has made three straight cuts in June and July, including an eighth-place performance at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and a T14 at the Workday Charity Open. Although Straka missed the cut at last year’s 3M Open, he fell short by only two strokes and he almost recovered from a tough opening round by firing a 68 on Friday. Straka is more than capable of contending this week at TPC Twin Cities.
