Matthew Lowrimore
UFC
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This week the Main Event at UFC 255 will feature a Flyweight title fight. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.
Here is our favorite three-fight parlay that pays at odds of +676. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 255 predictions for the full 12-fight card.
Deiveson Figueiredo (-320) vs. Alex Perez
No surprise that Deiveson Figueiredo comes into this fight as a heavy favorite and the Flyweight title holder. He is coming off back to back wins against Joseph Benavidez, the most recent fight coming back in July of this year. He won this fight by Technical Submission and he won the first fight against him by TKO. Figueiredo is averaging 2.80 strikes per minute, landing them with an accuracy of 55%. He absorbs very little as well, just 2.81 strikes. On the ground is where Figueiredo will want to be, considering he averages 1.71 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.9 submission attempts during the same time period.
The challenger, Perez, is a solid 24-5 in the MMA and 7-1 in the UFC. He just beat Jussier Formiga back in June of this year at UFC 250. Perez is much more of a striker, averaging 4.68 strikes per minute. At the same time, he absorbs more damage, an average of 3.10 strikes per minute. Perez also has an excellent ground-based ability, averaging 3.03 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.4 submission attempts.
I think Figueiredo is the more rounded fighter because of the power he has and his ability to grapple. I do think he will retain his title, and will look to back him on the money line here.
Jared Gooden (+124) vs. Alan Jouban
Alan Jouban comes into this fight 7-5 in the UFC and has lost three of his last four fights. The most recent one being back in April of 2019 where he lost to Dwight Grant by split decision. Jouban is averaging 4.85 significant strikes per minute, landing them with an accuracy of 50%. He is absorbing 3.34 strikes, but has still been knocked out three times in his career. He has not showed a ton of grappling ability, averaging just 0.59 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 50% and he defends them 62% of the time.
Jared Gooden will be making his UFC debut after starting his MMA career 17-4. He has won three fights in a row, all inside the distance. Gooden now has a total of 13 finishes in his career, seven by KO/TKO and six by submission. At the same time, he has only ever lost inside the distance once.
Jouban has been far too inconsistent to back at this price, so even though Gooden is making his debut, I would look his way to win here.
Brandon Royval (+164) vs. Brandon Moreno
Coming into this fight, Brandon Moreno is the heavy favorite and is 6-2-1 in the UFC. He is averaging 3.00 significant strikes per minute. Though his striking accuracy is only 34%. At the same time, he absorbs 2.94 strikes per minute. Moreno has plenty of grappling ability as well, averaging 1.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but landing them just 40% of the time.
Brandon Royval is 12-4 in the MMA and 2-0 in the UFC. He is coming off a win against Kai Kara France, a fight he won by submission back in September of this year. Royval is averaging just 3.90 strikes per minute. At the same time, he has absorbed just 2.77 strikes per minute. He is more likely going to take this fight to the ground, averaging 1.06 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 3.2 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100% so far, and he has defended takedowns 63% of the time.
I actually like Royval in this spot because he is more balanced and is more accurate. He has won both of his UFC fights by submission, so I will back him here to score the upset.
