UFC 279, Tony Ferguson vs Nate Diaz predictions four-fight parlay (+513 odds): Melissa Martinez makes her mark

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Matthew Lowrimore


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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.
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UFC 279 takes place on Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. This card features a welterweight fight between Tony Ferguson and Nate Diaz as the Main Event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for this event, with odds of +513 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC 279 predictions for the full 13-fight card.

UFC 279 parlay (+513 odds)

Hakeem Dawodu vs Julian Erosa – Fight to go the distance – No (-105)

Hakeem Dawodu is a big favorite in this fight, but Julian Erosa’s finish rate should keep him as a live dog. Erosa has won 23 fights by finish and has seen 28 fights end by distance in his career. Dawodu has won 7 of his 13 fights by finish and has seen 8 of his 16 fights end inside the distance. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance looks to be worth a play.

Jailton Almeida win by finish (-280) over Anton Turkalj

Jailton Almeida comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-2. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Parker Porter by submission back in May of this year. Almeida is averaging 3.48 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 53%. He is absorbing 0.49 strikes and has a striking defense of 12%. His grappling has been elite so far, averaging 6.27 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.1 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 66% and his takedown defense is 50%.

Almeida is one of the biggest favorites on this card, making his money line pretty much unplayable. He has won all 16 of his fights by finish, so even though Anton Turkalj has yet to lose, backing yet another finish win from Almeida looks to be worth a play.

Melissa Martinez ML (-180) over Elise Reed

Melissa Martinez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 7-0. This will be her UFC debut. So far she has won 5 of her 7 fights by finish. All of these finishes have been by KO/TKO. Also, all 5 of her KO/TKO wins have come before the 3rd round, so she has been known to work quickly in her fights.

Martinez is a decent sized favorite here, which is fair considering that she is undefeated. Elise Reed has had a little trouble with being knocked out, losing 2 of her last 3 fights by this method. For that reason, backing Martinez to win and remain undefeated will be the play.

Yohan Lainesse vs Darian Weeks – Fight to go the distance – No (-205)

This is one of the most evenly matched fights on the card as both fighters have solid striking and very good grappling. They both have high finish rates as Darian Weeks has seen 5 of his 7 fights end inside the distance, while Yohan Lainesse has seen 7 of his 9 fights do the same. For that reason, backing this fight to also end inside the distance will be the lean.

Parlay these four UFC 279 predictions for a potential payout at +513 odds!

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