UFC Fight Night 184 predictions, picks, best bets and three-fight parlay

Aug 31, 2019; Shenzhen, China; Karol Rosa (red gloves) defeats Lara Procopio (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Shenzhen Universiade Sports Centre.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 1 year ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

We are back in Las Vegas this week for UFC Fight Night 184. Our event this week will feature a Heavyweight fight for the Main Event. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite three-fight parlay that pays at odds of +490. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 184 predictions for the full 13-fight card.

Karol Rosa Win by Decision (-105)

Karol Rosa comes into this fight 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Vanessa Melo by unanimous decision back in July of 2020. Rosa is proving to be a prolific striker, averaging 9.70 significant strikes per minute. She also has a striking accuracy of 50 percent. Because she is so aggressive, she also is absorbing 7.00 significant strikes per minute. Though the good news is that she has never been knocked out. Her grappling is also relevant, averaging 1.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. She has a 50 percent takedown accuracy and a takedown defense of 100 percent.

Joselyne Edwards is fresh off her UFC debut win in January of this year. She beat Wu Yanan by unanimous decision. After her first UFC fight, Edwards is averaging 5.87 significant strikes per minute. Her striking accuracy is 49 percent. She is absorbing 3.87 strikes per minute, but has also never been knocked out. Edwards did not land a takedown in her first UFC fight, but did attempt one submission. She defends takedowns 50 percent of the time.

Rosa’s striking ability is legit and that is likely going to be the difference. Rosa has seen both her UFC fights go the distance, where she won on the cards. I like for Rosa to control this fight with her striking and therefore, my pick will be a Rosa win by decision.

Timur Valiev Win by Finish (+100)

Timur Valiev comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-2. He fought in a UFC event back in August of 2020, but the fight was overturned. Valiev is averaging 9.45 significant strikes per minute and is landing them 70 percent of the time. He is absorbing 3.72 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 48 percent.

Martin Day comes into this fight 0-4 in the UFC. He is in the midst of a three-fight losing streak. This is probably a must win for Day, otherwise his time in the UFC may be coming to an end soon. Day is averaging 5.06 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 46 percent. He is absorbing 3.83 strikes per minute. Day has some grappling ability, averaging 0.95 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 60 percent and his takedown defense is 76 percent. Though at the same time, he just recently lost by submission.

There is really no way to back Day in this fight. He has been far too inconsistent and I do not believe he stands a chance. Day has been finished in two fights in a row, so I do not trust his chin here and will back Valiev to win by a finish.

Ode Osbourne Money Line (-196)

Ode Osbourne comes into this fight with an MMA record of 8-3. He is 1-1 in the UFC, losing his most recent fight to Brian Kelleher. This was a loss by submission and came back in January of 2020. Osbourne is averaging 3.88 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 51 percent. He is absorbing 2.95 strikes per minute and has never been knocked out. His grappling ability is looking very promising, averaging 2.01 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 2.00 submission attempts during the same time period. He is landing his takedowns 100 percent of the time and has a striking defense of 66 percent.

Jerome Rivera will be looking to bounce back from his second consecutive UFC loss. This was a loss by unanimous decision to Francisco Figueiredo back in January of this year. He is averaging 3.06 significant strikes per minute, landing them 34 percent of the time. Rivera is absorbing 2.36 strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 52 percent. He has yet to show much grappling ability in the UFC, but is defending takedowns 40 percent of the time.

Rivera has now look poor two fights in a row and was taken down four times in his most recent fight. With Osbourne’s takedown ability, I think he is going to control this fight from the opening bell and will easily win.

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