UFC Fight Night 191 predictions: Four-fight parlay (+516 odds)

July 26, 2020; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Tom Aspinall (red gloves) of England celebrates after his victory over Jake Collier (blue gloves) in their heavyweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event inside Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this.

UFC Fight Night 191 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a middleweight fight as the main event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 191 that pays at odds of +516. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 191 predictions for the full 10-fight card.

Jonathan Martinez ML (-165) vs Marcelo Rojo

Jonathan Martinez comes into this fight with an MMA record of 13-4. He is 4-3 in the UFC, most recently losing to Davey Grant by TKO/KO in March. Martinez is averaging 4.27 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 46%. He is absorbing 3.81 strikes and has a striking defense of 58%. His grappling is below average, landing 0.48 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 37% and his takedown defense is 63%.

Marcelo Rojo did not do a good job at limiting the damage in his first UFC fight. Martinez has been a little inconsistent in the UFC, but he is better at landing strikes and has been able to defend takedowns at a high rate. For that reason, backing Martinez looks to be the play.

Paddy Pimblett ML (-155) vs Luigi Vendramini

Paddy Pimblett comes into this fight with an MMA record of 16-3. This will be his UFC debut as well. He has 12 wins by finish in his career, including 7 wins by submission. He is fine form at the moment, winning 12 of his last 14 fights.

Pimblett may be making his UFC debut, but he looks to be the right side here. He has a very high finish-rate, while Luigi Vendramini has been highly inconsistent and has not been good on the ground. For that reason, backing Pimblett will be the play here.

Modestas Bukauskas vs Khalil Roundtree Jr. – Fight to go the Distance – No (-250)

Khalil Roundtree Jr comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-5. He is 4-5 in the UFC, most recently beating Marcin Prachnio by unanimous decision in January. Roundtree Jr is averaging 3.06 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 38%. He is absorbing 3.63 strikes and has a striking defense of 49%.

Modestas Bukauskas comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-4. He is 1-2 in the UFC, most recently beating Michal Oleksiejczuk by split decision back in March of this year. Bukauskas is averaging 3.77 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 35%. He is absorbing 4.36 strikes and has a striking defense of 50%.

Roundtree Jr has seen 6 of his 9 UFC fights end inside the distance, while Bukauskas has seen 2 of his 3 UFC fights do the same. For that reason, backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.

Tom Aspinall to win by finish (-150) vs Serghei Spivac

Tom Aspinall comes into this fight with an MMA record of 10-2. He is 3-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Andrei Arlovski by submission in February. Aspinall is averaging 7.43 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 66%. He is absorbing 3.06 strikes and has a striking defense of 65%. His grappling is also very solid, averaging 3.54 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.8 submission attempts during the same time period. His takedown accuracy is 100% and he has not had to defend a takedown.

Aspinall has been perfect to start his UFC career and has won all his fights by finish. Because of this, backing Aspinall to win by a finish will be the play.

Pickswise is the home of free UFC Predictions and UFC Picks. Our expert UFC handicappers bring you the best bet from the top UFC and UFC Fight Night cards.

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