UFC Fight Night 196 predictions: Four-fight parlay (+876 odds)

Apr 24, 2021; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Aoriqileng (Red Gloves) fights Jeff Molina (Blue Gloves) during UFC 261 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC· 1 month ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

UFC Fight Night 196 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The card will feature a middleweight division fight as the main event.

Here is our favorite 4-fight parlay for UFC Fight Night 196 that pays at odds of +876. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 196 predictions for the full 14-fight card.

Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori – Fight to go the Distance – No (-150)

When not facing Israel Adesanya, both of these guys are really good. Five of Costa’s 6 UFC fights have ended inside the distance, and even though most of Marvin Vettori’s UFC fights have gone the distance, keeping Costa at bay for a full 5 rounds could be a small issue. Thus backing this fight to end inside the distance will be the play.

Nicolae Negumereanu vs Ike Villanueva – Fight to end by KO/TKO (-150)

Ike Villanueva has clearly struggled with avoiding damage so far in the UFC. All 4 of his fights have ended by TKO/KO, as well. It just seems like he either lands the big punch or gets slumped pretty quickly. So, while Negumereanu has seen both his UFC fights go the distance, he still has 6 wins by TKO/KO in his career. He has the power to be able to win this fight standing. Because it feels like most of Villanueva’s fights end with a knockout, backing the same here will be the play.

Jeff Molina vs Daniel da Silva – Fight to go the Distance – No (-150)

Jeff Molina comes into this fight with an MMA record of 9-2. He is 2-0 in the UFC, most recently beating Qileng Aori by unanimous decision back in April of this year. He is averaging 8.83 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 47%. He is absorbing 6.63 strikes and has a striking defense of 55%.

Da Silva comes into this fight with an MMA record of 11-1. This will be his UFC debut. Da Silva has finished all 11 fights in his career. Six of these wins have come by submission and 5 have come by TKO/KO. It is also worth noting that 11 of his 12 career fights have ended in the first round, so this fight is likely to be fast-paced.

Molina may have seen his last 2 fights go the distance, but he has still seen 7 of his 11 fights end inside the distance. All of Daniel da Silva’s fights have ended inside the distance, so in what looks to be a close fight backing this one to end inside the distance will be the play.

Livinha Souza Money Line (-130)

Livinha Souza comes into this fight with an MMA record of 14-3. She is 3-2 in the UFC, most recently losing to Amanda Lemos by TKO/KO back in March of this year. She is averaging just 2.06 significant strikes per minute, and has a striking accuracy of 45%. She is absorbing 3.38 strikes and has a striking defense of 62 percent. Souza also is a solid grappler, averaging 2.40 takedowns per every 15 minutes and 1.2 submission attempts during the same time period. Her takedown accuracy is 44% and her takedown defense is 40%.

Randa Markos is far too unpredictable to even consider backing in this fight. It is not like Souza is amazing either, but she is still more consistent, and does not make poor decisions like Markos did when she was recently disqualified. For that reason, backing Souza has to be the play.

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