UFC on ESPN 19 predictions, picks, best bets and three-fight parlay

July 19, 2020; Abu Dhabi, UAE; Roman Dolidze of Georgia knocks out Khadis Ibragimov of Russia in their light heavyweight bout during UFC Fight Night at the Flash Forum on UFC Fight Island.
Photo of Matthew Lowrimore

Matthew Lowrimore


Show Bio

Matthew has been with Pickswise for a while now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passions are college football and UFC, and those are the sports he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will put in the research to try and achieve this. For Matt Lowrimore media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

This week the Main Event at UFC on ESPN 19 will feature a Middleweight fight with title aspirations. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite three-fight parlay that pays at odds of +435. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC on ESPN 19 predictions for the full 11-fight card.

Jimmy Flick Win by Submission (+140)

Jimmy Flick comes into this fight 15-5 in the MMA. He will be making his official UFC debut here after most recently earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Flick is not a high-volume striker, averaging just 2.04 significant strikes per minute. He is absorbing 1.28 strikes and has a striking defense of 61%. Flick looks to be an elite submission artist, and is so far averaging 7.9 submission attempts per every 15 minutes. He also averages 2.26 takedowns during the same period and lands them 66% of them time.

Cody Durden comes into this fight 11-2-1 in the MMA. He fought to a draw in his UFC debut back in August of this year. Durden is averaging 2.40 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.40. He averages 2.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but only lands his takedowns 15% of the time.

Durden did not look very good striking wise in his UFC debut, so I am not overly concerned that he is going to score a knockout. I do think Flick’s grappling and his ability to submit is going to be the difference. For that reason, I will lean to a Flick submission for a plus money price.

Roman Dolidze Money Line (-184)

Roman Dolidze comes into this fight a perfect 7-0 in the MMA. He won his UFC debut back in July of this year by TKO in the first round. Dolidze is averaging 4.47 significant strikes per minute and is landing them with an accuracy of 86%. He is absorbing 0.94 strikes, meaning he barely was touched in that UFC debut. He did not need to grapple in his debut, but it is worth noting that he has three submission wins in his career.

John Allen will make his official debut in the UFC and is 13-5 in the MMA. He is averaging 3.59 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.39 strikes. Allen also averages 2.54 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He lands his takedowns 66% of the time and defends them 57% of the time.

Allen does look a little more balanced, but we have not yet seen the full arsenal of Dolidze. At least not in the UFC because he knocked out his opponent last time without breaking a sweat. Dolidze has a perfect finish rate as well, and I think we will see him dominate this fight.

Taila Santos Money Line (-225)

Taila Santos comes in as the clear favorite and is 16-1 in her MMA career. She won her last fight against Molly McCann, beating her by unanimous decision back in July of this year. Santos is averaging 4.06 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 2.76 strikes. Her grappling has been extremely good, averaging 2.33 takedowns per every 15 minutes, landing them 77% of the time. She also defends takedowns 83% of the time.

Montana De La Rosa comes into this fight 11-6 in the MMA, losing her most recent fight by unanimous decision. She is now averaging 3.03 significant strikes per minute, but is only landing her strikes 35% of the time. She is absorbing 3.38 strikes and has a striking defense of 46%. De La Rosa also can grapple, but has not done so as effectively. She averages 1.96 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but has a takedown accuracy of 30%. She also defends takedowns 57% of the time. Santos is by far the more balanced fighter, so I like her to win this fight rather easily.

Virginia Bonuses

See All
FanDuel Sportsbook
Bet $5+ on Lions vs. Packers and Receive $200 in Bonus Bets!

Sign up for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account

Bet $5 on any sporting event

Receive $200 in Bonus Bets

Must be 21+. First online real money wager only. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable free bets that expire 14 days after receipt. See full terms at fanduel.com/sportsbook. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+
Bet $1 and Get $365 in Bonus Bets!

Register for a new bet365 account

Place qualifying bets of $1 or more

Get $365 in bonus bets - no matter if your bet wins or loses

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+. Physically present in OH, CO, NJ, VA, IA. Eligibility restrictions apply. Subject to regulatory licensing requirements. Opt-in req. Valid 1 per customer.
Bet $5 on Lions vs. Packers, Get $200 in Bonus Bets Instantly + Up to $150 in No Sweat Bets!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5+ on any sports market and get $200 in bonus bets instantly

Plus up to $150 back in bonus bets if your team loses!

Gambling Problem? Call 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (CO/IL/IN/LA/MD/MI/NJ/PA/TN/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or 1-888-532-3500 (VA). 21+ (18+ WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/KS/LA(select parishes)/MD/MI/NJ/NY/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Void in OH/ONT. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit. Min. $5 bet. $200 issued as bonus bets that expire 7 days (168 hours) after being awarded. See terms at sportsbook.draftkings.com.
Caesars Sportsbook
$1,000 First Bet on Caesars for Lions vs. Packers!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account and Place your 1st wager of $10 or more

Place your first wager of $50 or more and get $50 bonus bet upon settlement of your first wager

You will receive an additional $50 bonus bet each subsequent Monday

21+. New users and first wager only. Must register with eligible promo code. Bet amount of qualifying wager returned only if wager is settled as a loss. Min. bet $50; must be used within 14 days of receipt. See Caesars.com/promos for full terms. Void where prohibited. Know When To Stop Before You Start.® Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Get $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if you Don't Win Your First Bet on Lions vs. Packers!

Register for a new BetMGM account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,500!

Get refunded up to $1,500 in bonus bets if you don't win

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER CO, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, MA 21+ to wager. Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI). Visit BetMGM.com for Terms & Conditions. US promotional offers not available in DC, Nevada, New York or Ontario
Bet $50, Get $111 in Fred Bets + Up To $1,000 Back!

Sign up for a new account with Betfred Sports and make your first deposit

Place a $50 wager on any sport

Get $111 in Fred Bets + Up To $1,000 Back in Losses over 5 Week!

Must be 21+. T&Cs apply. Wagers only accepted in CO, AZ, IA, OH, VA, MD. Full terms available from Betfred Sports.
Get Up To $1,000 in Second Chance Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

If any of your first 10 cash bets lose (first bet per day for 10 days)

You will receive Bonus Bet(s) in the amount of the losing wager(s), up to $100 each.

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21+. Physically present in. Eligibility restrictions apply. Subject to regulatory licensing requirements. Opt-in req. Valid 1 per customer.
Get up to $500 Back in Bonus Bets if your First Bet Doesn't Win

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code SPORTS

Make your first deposit & and bet up to $500

If your first bet loses, get up to $500 back in bonus bets

Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF
Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus

Create a new DraftKings Sportsbook account and make your first deposit (min $5)

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.
Underdog Fantasy
First deposit is 100% matched up to $500 with Underdog Fantasy!

Sign up for a new account with Underdog Fantasy

Make your first deposit

Every dollar (up to $500) will be matched! Deposit $25, get $50; deposit $100, get $200, etc

Must be 21+ to play. Terms & conditions apply
By signing up you agree to our terms and privacy policy