UFC Predictions: Fight Night 173 Brunson vs. Shahbazyan picks and parlays

Nov 2, 2019; New York, NY, USA; Edmen Shahbazyan (blue gloves) defeats Brad Tavares (Red gloves) during UFC 244 at Madison Square Garden.
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Matthew Lowrimore

UFC · 1 year ago

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Matthew has been with Pickswise for over a year now, covering a wide variety of sports. His main passion is college football and that is the sport he has covered the most. Matthew uses a variety of methods to handicap games, including stats, trends, injuries, and situational factors. His goal is to consistently give out winners and will do everything he can to make his readers money.

The first UFC event in August is back in Las Vegas and features an 11-fight card, headlined by a Middleweight bout between two top 10 contenders. There are some huge favorites among this event, so looking for a parlay could be the best way to find the most value.

Here is our favorite three-fight parlay that pays at odds of +203. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC Fight Night 173 predictions for the full 11-fight card.

Kevin Holland Moneyline (-210)

Kevin Holland takes on Trevin Giles in the first scheduled fight on the main card. Holland comes into this fight with an MMA record of 17-5, and a record of 4-2 in the UFC. He most recently beat Anthony Hernandez by TKO back in May at UFC on ESPN 8. Holland will look to stand up and fight in this one, averaging 4.29 significant strikes per minute. It only took 14 significant strikes to end the fight with Hernandez and he will be looking for another quick bout here. Holland has finished 14 of his 17 wins, and has 2 finishes in the UFC. He impressed me in his last fight and I think his experience will allow him to pick up his second win in a row.

Joanne Calderwood (-180)

Joanne Calderwood and Jennifer Maia will be the Co-Main Event in a top 10 Women’s Flyweight bout. Calderwood comes into this fight with a record of 14-4 in her MMA career and 6-4 in the UFC. She is the #3 contender in the Flyweight division, looking for a significant win to give her a title shot. Calderwood is an excellent striker, landing an average of 6.19 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 47%. She also has the ability to fight on the ground, averaging 1.85 takedowns per every 15 minutes.

Note that all 4 of Jennifer Maia’s UFC fights have gone the distance and 6 out of 10 fights in the UFC have as well for Calderwood. I think Calderwood  can use her excellent striking and grappling to control this fight and I would elect to take Calderwood on the money line to be safe, but a Calderwood win by decision also looks good.

Edmen Shahbazyan (-310)

The most anticipated fight on the night will be the main event between Edmen Shahbazyan and Derek Brunson. Shahbazyan comes in with a perfect 11-0 MMA record. He is 4-0 in the UFC and the #9 contender in the division. He is an extremely balanced fighter, averaging 4.11 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 52%. Shahbazyan also absorbs every little damage, just 2.11 strikes per minute. His grappling game is just as impressive, averaging 6.77 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Though he only lands these takedown with an accuracy of 40%. On the flip side, he has a takedown defense of 75%, only having been taken down once in his UFC career.

It is also important to note that Shahbazyan has 9 KO/TKO wins in his career and 1 submission win. In his 4 UFC fights, 3 of them have been finished inside the distance. All three of his UFC finishes have been in the first-round as well, further showing how he likes to make quick work of his opponents. I look for the balanced style from Shahbazyan to be too much and therefore, my pick would be Shahbazyan to win this fight.

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